The writer is a former editor of the Mumbai-based English newspaper Mid Day and the Gujarati paper Divya Bhaskar. His book Translating Saadat Hasan Manto’s non-fiction work will be published this year
aakar.patel@tribune.com.pk
What will the Narendra Modi cabinet look like? My answer is that it will depend on how few seats he gets. This is logical and most portfolio distribution is managed through the logic of seat sharing with allies.
But what I mean here is that the number of seats that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) wins will determine the way in which the party itself will get to enjoy the spoils of victory. Opinion polls show that the BJP is riding a wave on the back of Modi’s performance and a superb, world-class campaign.
The polls that did their sampling six months ago, gave the BJP a little short of 200 seats, a couple predicting the 180-190 range. A few months after that, the polls showed the party at over 200. The ones just before the election showed the party at about 220 and the BJP is now talking about 300 seats (along with their allies).
What will the Modi cabinet look like given each of these scenarios? The rise in the predictions over time shows that the higher number is more likely than the lower, so let’s go there first. If the BJP has a majority or close to a majority on its own, that will be a problem for its senior leaders. That is because Modi will then have the space to do what he has done in Gujarat. In that state he has appropriated all the important cabinet portfolios himself. The reasons for this appropriation are two: the first is Modi is (according to himself) the only competent leader in government.
I will prove this by again, as I have before, pointing to the words he had used to describe himself on his website: “great dreamer”; “remarkable ability”; “hard taskmaster”; “strict disciplinarian”; “amazing”; “realist”; “idealist”; “clarity of vision, sense of purpose, diligent perseverance”; “excellent organisational ability: “rich insight into human psychology”; “sheer strength of character and courage” and so on. And on.
The second reason is that he is highly insecure and has tolerated no rival. I’ve written enough about this in the past as well. There will be a repeat of this in Delhi if the BJP wins, on the back of his performance, 272 seats or a number close to it. Sushma Swaraj and LK Advani and other senior leaders will have to take ministries like Sports and Youth Affairs and Human Resources Development. Modi will invent some jobs for others. My friend Jay Narayan Vyas, for years a minister under Modi, was given the portfolio ‘Minister for Non-resident Gujaratis’. I said to him on a TV show that Modi would govern all Gujaratis in Gujarat while he had given Jay Narayan the task to ensure the good governance of all Gujaratis in America and Canada.
Everyone in the BJP knows this and within the party there is the ‘180 group’ of people who want fewer seats so that the tyranny is limited. People like Arun Jaitley, a Rajya Sabha MP from Gujarat despite not knowing any Gujarati, saw which way the wind was blowing years ago and have chosen to kiss the ring.
What would happen if the 180 group got its wish? Then it becomes a little complicated. Modi will have to accommodate first, plenty of allies, who will add their numbers to make up the deficit. He will have to let go of critical ministries, especially those that are called ATM ministries (a clever name coined by my friend, the Indian Express editor Shekhar Gupta) for their ability to generate cash.
And he will also have to distribute power to the rest of the BJP, because the win would not be seen as his personal triumph. A Modi in a 180-seat scenario will be fascinating to people like me who have known him for so long. He will have to reinvent himself entirely as a leader and as a person because he has only ever worked with a two-thirds majority.
I will personally be delighted to see him steer a 180-seat coalition successfully for five years because it will prove many of the nasty things I believe about him to be untrue.
Published in The Express Tribune, May 4th, 2014.
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COMMENTS (11)
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65 years OLD modi feels insecure about many things : 1) His image 2) He has inflated ego 3) He is intolerant, undemocratic 4) He is biased, indecisive in supporting GST, FDi etc 5) His lust for power drives modi to any extent
This is last chance ofr this senior citizrn 65 years old man to take shot at Delhi chair.
Over the last five decades I have seen fro the ringside and later as an observer (in touch with a good few in Government in Delhi and some states) and have no love left for politicians as a class including some at the top whom I used to know well. The horrendous corruption, greed lack of commitment to public weal and increasing stagnation,etc have been depressing. I know little of Gujarat personally except that I did not care for Gujarati businessmen but my experience here was limited and others could have been worse. But I have talked to some civil servants and academics, Mr patel talks of superannuated leaders nearing their 89s, who need to go anyway. There are enough young people to take on responsibility and they are better qualified too. It looks like Modi and his present allies will get a clear majority and the Congress will be lucky to get 100 seats we may not like many people and things but so long as the law of the land is respected to go on carping indicates much pettiness!
For all readers in Pakistan, please remember that Akaar Patel is the one who predicted Modi will never be BJP PM candidate, and later predicted, he'll never become the PM.
So much for this 'prediction' business!
Aakar Patel, what will you do the day he becomes the PM? I sure recommend you to pre-book a bed at your nearest hospital's trauma center for 16th, 17th and 18th May. Of 100 articles by you, 99.999999% were initially about, Modi bashing.
the ''180 club'' concept in BJP comes with a catch...every supposed member of this club is not sure about his or her own victory in these polls. in fact it will not be exaggeration to say that not a single leader, may be except Modi is sure of his personal victory.so when situation is so scorching for all,the maximum they can do is dream...and thats what they are doing.they hardly have the luxury of time and energy to put this concept into reality.Modi is set to score somewhere between 270-285 and that will put all speculations to rest.
PS:these polls are the most un-predictable polls for individuals leaders...we might see many Giants licking the dust.and in this whole chaos many BJP bigwigs can also bid their seats goodbye.
get rid of ur hypothetical assumptions it is gonna na 272+ for BJP Period and believe u me it will be a complete rout of CONgress
LOL LOL
I can see how 160 club transformed into the 180 one now, which I still believe is far fetched. BJP is atleast getting 200 this time and NDA 240.
Two critical alliances of AIADMK & BJD will be clinched immediately for sure. BJD will not be hungry for ministries, but rather for the financial package for their state. AIADMK will definitely ask for atleast one cabinet berth.. Other than that it would again be vouching for the packages for its state.
MODI Sarkar is here to stay !
Unfortunately your hatred and prejudice against Modi prevents you from logical thinking. Do you really think Modi does not know ruling India will be different from ruling Gujarat? Consider the possibility the man is intelligent. At least consider it as a remote possibility. How do you think he came to where he is now? Through mummy, daddy connections?
You are hoping for 180 scenario not because you want to be disproved. Nay. You are consoling yourself, after dismissing the possibility Modi will be PM, now you are desperately hoping he will be at least weak PM. Now read my first sentence.
So at last, you have resigned yourself to a Modi government.
@Author: A Modi in a 180-seat scenario will be fascinating to people like me who have known him for so long.
You probably forgot to add: "As a bonus, this will ensure that Congress will remain relevant and also help deflect some of the blame that is due to fall on Rahul Gandhi for running such a disastrous campaign.:
What you are forgetting is that Indians already know what an absolute mess a coalition makes. UPA-I feigned that it could not do many things especially the nuclear deal because it was in a coalition with the Left. Indians therefore gave UPA-II an absolute majority and now they can only blame themselves and no one else.
Over the past few years, I sense that Indians want to vote decisively one way or another. This is especially true in my state of Karnataka which has largely voted as a collective for a single party to come to power, be it BJP or Congress.. A regional party which once wielded enormous influence has now been relegated to a has-been.