The writer was foreign secretary from 1994-97 and also served as Pakistan’s ambassador to Iran (1992-94) and the US (1990-91)
Of the three transitions — economic, security and political — the political, we are told, is the most important since this will determine whether or not the new administration will sign the Bilateral Security Agreement with the Americans and how the reconciliation with the “armed opposition” will or will not proceed.
This process is not going to be helped by the other two transitions. Official Afghan figures put economic growth during the last year at three per cent after almost double-digit growth in past years. Real estate prices have collapsed. Construction, transport and other service sectors have experienced sharp declines. Mineral wealth exploitation remains a distant dream with setbacks being provided by the Chinese decision to renegotiate the agreement they had reached on the Aynak copper mine and Indian consortium, putting on hold plans to exploit the Hajigak iron ore deposits. The outflow of economic refugees, primarily to Pakistan, has increased dramatically. Rich Afghans are taking money out. The grim joke told in Kabul is that every decline in real estate values in the city triggers a comparable increase in the value of plots in Peshawar’s Hayatabad.
Much has been made of the fact that the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), now responsible for security in 97 per cent of Afghanistan, yielded no ground to the Taliban. True, but the cost has been high, with ANSF casualties being much higher than those suffered by Nato and Afghan forces combined in past years. The ANSF, in its operations, continued to have air and intelligence support from the foreign forces. This will disappear by the end of 2014 as will a large part of the $6 billion now provided to fund the 35,000-strong ANSF.
The Afghan Independent Election Commission had finalised a list of 6,775 polling centres and 21,663 polling sites. This list had excluded certain areas where the provision of security was deemed problematic. Now even this is to be reduced further because of increased security concerns primarily in the Taliban-influenced areas in the south and east of the country, thus reducing further Pushtun participation in the vote
Most importantly, it is almost certain, absent massive rigging, that there will be no outright winner in the first round. This will require a run-off election and therefore, postpone the installation of a new president to June-July.
In his recent visit to Kabul for Navroz celebrations, President Mamnoon Hussain reiterated Pakistan’s stand that it would support and facilitate efforts for an inclusive Afghan-led and Afghan-owned peace and reconciliation process. The Afghans, however, maintain that Pakistan has not done so. This is untrue but so is the fact that we have not been able to pressure the Taliban on our soil to hold reconciliation talks. Karzai’s own efforts have also failed miserably.
And yet, given the perilous security and economic situation, restoring even a modicum of peace and stability in Afghanistan, requires that the elections yield a credible president who can conduct reconciliation talks with the “armed opposition”. Those who have influence with the Taliban must persuade them to allow the elections to proceed unhindered. Otherwise, 2015 may become the year of a new civil war in Afghanistan with disastrous consequences, not only for the poor Afghan people but also for Pakistan, which will then be the “strategic depth” of the Afghan Taliban as they seek, in tandem with our Taliban, to dominate Afghanistan.
Published in The Express Tribune, March 31st, 2014.
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@Malik Achakzai: Your illusion of Afghan unity shows naivete. You may think these Afghans of different groups are one but they don't behave in that way! Have you noted that even in the Afghan diaspora in the West does not interact with each other? For example in Canada, Australia and Europe there are large numbers of Afghan refugees who live on state social assistance in government housing projects. In these projects the Persian speaking Tajiks and Hazaras do not interact with Uzbeks or Afghan Pashtuns. Then there is the issue of sects not interacting too so how can they be considered a nation. Afghanistan is a disunited multi ethnic state that looks poised for more instability and violence. The key for neighbors like Iran and Pakistan is to contain the violence and refugees there by closing their borders.
The blunder Mr. Writer makes is his views declaring Pashtun candidates, I do not think he is making a phrase popular among the masses living in Afghanistan. Here we monitor as journalists from Pakistani side. Everything is going under the umbrella of Afghan unity. No body has mentioned whether he is some one brilliant Pashtun so he needs votes and his fellow Pashtun will cost for him/her. At the same time if Ashraf Ghani is a Pashtun candidate his vice presidential candidate is an ethnic Uzbek Afghan Gen Abdul Rashid Dostum. A second candidate is Abdullah Abdullah whose father was Pashtun and mother a Tajik Afghan from north, his president is from Hazara Afghan tribe Mr. Muqiq. Same exists in the third team, Mr. Zalmai Rasool a Pashtun having spend his life in Kabul [in Afghanistan most people are named to their region so a Kabuli Pashtun] his vice presidential candidate is Mr. Ahmed Zia Masoud a Tajik Afghan, the brother of veteran Afghan leader who defended Afghanistan till his last breath Ahmed Shah Masoud. Their second vice president will be Miss Habiba, a Hazara Afghan and the only woman candidate in the presidential election race. That way the list goes till the last team of presidential candidates.
Now, you would feel the difference if you come and look at their banners and slogans as well as their manifestos. No one is running to be a Pashtun, Tajik, Hazara, Uzbek divided candidates. But a mix up and combined process for electioneering is underway.
The writer has included Taliban to be a monster which will eat out 30 million Afghans. They are having hit and run attacks and for an addition to his information I can refer him the surveys and reports by foreigners and neutral monitoring teams. Who have already stated that Taliban are unable to sabotage the country's third presidential election. Therefore, their targets happen to be civilian instead of security forces or foreign coalition forces. Their reported attacks on Independent Election Commission offices show Taliban casualties heavier even than their target civilians. Which shows a powerful network of Afghan security forces and police quick response to Taliban attacks.
The writer is making huge jumps between his figures and argument he places in his piece. He has mentioned the 6 billion dollar fund as an aid for Afghan National Security forces. Though, it has been fund and will remain an aid to the Afghan government and people of Afghanistan.
Afghanistan will have the most peaceful election of its kind and a peaceful transition of power will be an up to the morale of this war torn nation. This election will surely boost up the development of the country. And will give a stronger message to the world that Afghans are having their election under a security setup of their own.
Dear author! It seems that u have very limited information about afghan election. It would be good if u would update itself.
No, if Pakistan really wants Afghanistan to succeed, it should persuade its Taliban supporters to stand in the elections.
More likely they will dominate large sections of both Afghanistan and Pakistan making a large de-facto Taliban nation. What little control you have over the tribal territories will erode and eventually vanish.