Unrest in Crimea

Geopolitical tectonics invariably move exceeding slow, but events in Crimea in last 3 months represent seismic shift.

The crisis precipitated by the Russian annexation of the Crimean peninsula has claimed its first casualty — a Ukrainian junior officer reportedly killed by a sniper in Simferopol. On March 16, Crimea voted in a snap referendum to cede to Russia and the fait accompli was sealed. On March 18, President Putin announced the annexation of Crimea and in a bitter speech spoke of Western hypocrisy (towards Russia) and cited a list of grievances linked to Western foreign policy decisions that stretched back 14 years. The Russian hold over Crimea is now an accomplished reality, is unlikely to be reversed in the foreseeable future and the world has acquired a new flashpoint.

Following the death of the soldier, the Ukrainian government in Kiev authorised its armed forces to use their weapons if they were attacked, and the Western states are blowing up a blizzard of sanctions aimed at Russia. The US and the EU have announced limitations on a number of senior Russian officials, the UK has suspended joint naval exercises with Russia and cancelled arms exports, and US Vice-President Joe Biden has said that Russia now “stands alone” and was “naked before the world.” In reality, the West is struggling to make an effective response to the Russian moves. Sanctions will have little immediate effect beyond goading Russia, and increasing its perception of being the victim. President Obama is in Europe for most of the next week and the G-8 Summit that was to have been held in Sochi is in doubt. It is the Polish Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, who summarised the present position succinctly. He warned of major consequences, saying that “before our eyes the history of this region is changing”. Geopolitical tectonics invariably move exceeding slow, but events in Crimea in the last three months represent a seismic shift. They expose the frailties of diplomacy in the face of armed aggression, and also expose the fallacy of the assumption of national borders being immutable. And never underestimate an oligarchy.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 23^rd, 2014.

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