Afghan watchers know that except for Dr Abdullah Abdullah, most of the remaining presidential aspirants are either Karzai’s loyalists or have fielded their nominations under a cleverly tailored strategy to prevent Abdullah from winning the polls. It seems that most pro-Karzai presidential hopefuls will pull out of the polls one by one in favour of his desired candidate. Observers believe that the phased withdrawal of candidates in the presence of a large number of television channels will leave a strong impression on voters. The apparently surprise pullout of the president’s brother, Qayum Karzai, in favour of former foreign minister Zalmai Rassoul, lent even greater credence to the perception that the president has, indeed, carefully choreographed the campaign of his ‘favourite’. Karzai-watchers based in Kabul say that Qayum Karzai’s withdrawal in favour of Rassoul has come as a surprise for many because the brother comes from an influential background compared with Dr Abdullah, and respect for clans and family affinities remains very much intact in Afghan society.
Rassoul lacks the ingredients that are essential for success in Afghanistan — he is not charismatic, cannot boast of any national achievement and lacks a strong traditional support base. Analysts also believe that the controversy that stemmed from last June’s opening of an Afghan Taliban office in Qatar under a US-initiated peace process, sowed seeds of suspicion in Karzai’s mind that he was being sidelined. This stand-off with Washington gave Karzai an opportunity to devise his political survival strategy and position himself beyond his tenure. Soon after the Qatar fiasco, Karzai initiated contacts with the Afghan Taliban without consulting the US, and also persuaded leadership of the second largest insurgent group, Hezb-e-Islami, to take part in the election. He also reached out to Islamabad, toning down his usual Pakistan-related rhetoric and conveyed his willingness to foster closer future coordination. The Hezb-e-Islami has urged its supporters to vote for presidential candidate Qutbuddin Hilal, a chief of the group. Moreover, Abdul Rab Rasool Sayaf has teamed up with the former Herat strongman, Mohammad Ismail. Both of them are respected senior jihadi leaders in Afghanistan, and are suspected to be part of Karzai’s game plan. This is likely to significantly deprive Abdullah of support of jihadi elements and particularly the Pashtun groups opposed to US presence. To what extent do the new alignments dent Abdullah’s youth vote also remains to be seen. In the previous elections, a majority of the Afghan youth rallied behind Abdullah.
However, some Afghan observers say that the Pashtun vote stands divided because of the candidature of the highly-educated Ashraf Ghani. The former finance minister has introduced national projects that he is showcasing in his election campaign and is among the top runners, along with Abdullah. That is likely to help Karzai’s favoured candidate in the ultimate analysis.
Interestingly, Ghani has fielded the Uzbek commander, Abdul Rasheed Dostum, as his vice-presidential candidate, while Abdullah supports the Hazara Ustad Mohaqiq for this position. Both Dostum and Mohaqiq are known for switching sides whenever needed. In case they live up to their past records, and switch sides at the last moment, that can impact the vote bank of both Ghani and Abdullah, which will also benefit the presidential hopeful supported by Karzai. All these realignments promise an exciting presidential election.
Published in The Express Tribune, March 12th, 2014.
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@Kaghani: Karzai was a refugee in the US like most Afghanis in Western countries. I guess he will go back to the large refugee population of Afghanis in Europe, Australia or US. He may have money compared to the majority Afghani asylum seekers who live on state social assistance or state khayrat but at least he will be spared the violence in Afghanistan. The different ethnic groups in Afghanistan have a distrust off each other so no one can predict how Hazara vote or Uzbek vote or Tajik vote can turn. We'll have to wait and see but most people do not anticipate a good outcome for Afghanistan.
@Kaghani:
Sir, why INDIA ? Kerzai could go anywhere >>>>> he has the money .
On the other hand, should the coming Afghan election throw up a President who is a Kerzai-loyalist, the he need not seek refuge anywhere.
Wait for 2 to 3 months !!!
Everybody who feels persecuted can seek asylum in India but India will not allow a single asylum seeker or refugee indulge in criminal activities, carry a Gun or plan any terror activities. Tibetians in thousands have fled and taken refuge in India but all they can do is take out processions and holler on the street.
The consensus is that Karzai will seek asylum in India. Along with his wives and children. That includes his dead billionaire brother's family.