The writer is a lawyer and author of the book A Comparative Analysis of Media and Media Laws in Pakistan. She tweets at @yasmeen_9
On February 18, 2014, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a $183 million credit agreement. One dealt with the construction of a hydro-power project in Chitral, while the other pertained to the import of urea fertiliser from Saudi Arabia. This news was accompanied by another; that of Pakistan having decided to support Saudi Arabia in its demand to replace Bashar al Assad’s regime with an interim government. Interestingly, on the very same date, Iran issued a threat to Pakistan to send forces within its borders should it fail to rescue the five Iranian border guards abducted 10 days ago. Ten days ago? Whoa!
Enter Syria. Syria will determine the balance of Middle East politics. Syria holds a hugely important position for Iran. With Hezbollah, Iraq and Syria, Iran converges to form a religious school of thought. The US and Saudi Arabia are on the same page on this one, opposing Iran. Vali Nasr in The Japan Times says, “Syria is now a proxy war, the outcome of which will determine the regional pecking order. In the Mideast, aura of power decides strategic advantage.” (Published June 8, 2013.)
Now enter Afghanistan. Hamid Karzai visited Iran in December 2013. Both countries agreed to sign a “pact of friendship and cooperation”. This comes on the heels of a security agreement, which both countries entered into in 2013 to further enhance security cooperation. Trade between them is healthy and is expected to grow further once the Chahbahar Port becomes operative for heavier traffic.
Moving too close to Saudi Arabia at a time when the US is on the eve of pulling out its combat forces from Afghanistan, with increasing Iranian and Indian interest in Afghanistan, unleashing of terror incidents in Pakistan and growing schismatic clashes, one wrong step can lead Pakistan into a more ferocious proxy war on its soil than so far witnessed.
Shopping for a sugar daddy, Pakistan needs to understand that its interests and those of the sugar daddy may converge on some levels and may diverge on others. A pragmatic evaluation of the long-term national interest of Pakistan needs to be made in the light of the changing geopolitical scenario. Pakistan alone should define Pakistan’s national interest. When lollipops are accepted from a sugar daddy, there is always a price to pay. Pakistan must strive to build a balanced foreign policy, not based on imbalances. Imbalances lead to skewed relationships. Skewed relationships lead to an inevitable mess and inevitable messes to bitterness and mistrust.
Pakistan and the US, too, have had a relationship marked with varying expectations from each other. The fact that the interests of both diverged on many levels was maybe never appreciated by either. “The relationship needs redefinition, based on recognition of divergent interests …” (Husain Haqqani writing in Magnificent Delusions page 350). Somehow, Pakistan seems to be ready to commit the same mistake all over again with a country, it hopes, may invest in its economy. How economic help can translate on the ground in a country fraught with terrorism, and severe power and gas shortages will be a challenge in itself. Not to forget the dangerously volatile and precarious nature of changing regional dynamics.
It is deja vu!
Published in The Express Tribune, February 25th, 2014.
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@Magnt: At a juncture when an apparent strategic re-orientation is underway with respect to the Middle East, Iran & KSA largely, vis a vis the US, this seems to be the best time for Pakistan to play its cards well in the supreme interest of our country. Myopic approach shall surely cost us dearly. In my opinion this approach if applied, would reflect on intentions more than on collective intellectual and diplomatic bankruptcy of our political and military elite. I want to avoid deja vu, so do all of us!
Extremely clear view of the issue!
Prince Salman bin Abdul Aziz has arrived in India on 27 feb. Welcome to India, your royal highness- a country which King Abdullah called his second home. I have very good memories of my stay in Saudi Arabia.
Tthis government, its #branded #TTP are stalling for time. nothing will happen cos none is sincere neither to the nation nor religion!
This situation would never arise in a truly democratic dispensation. This is the reason that the military should never be given powers to dictate state policy. At best, they should be allowed to play an advisory role. But in Pakistan they hold the veto power over state policies - perhaps because they are aware that the state apparatus does not have the wherewithal to provide for the behemoth that the Pakistani security establishment has become. Hence, they go for arrangements that hold monetary benefits thus jeopardizing Pakistan's long-term interest. .
Considering your excellent article what are your views on likely implication after US leave Afghan especially in Kashmir? I would be very interested to know.
This Govt is a Puppet on Saudi strings and lack the capacity to appreciate articles of national interest! Brilliant!
Regional alliances are made and get broken. Yasmin Ali in the past has opposed the most important regional alliance with India that Pakistan needs to have. Iran and Indian relations with Afghanistan, old horses beaten enough times, will not make much difference for Pakistan.
You have connected interesting dots here.Extremely interesting connections.Wham! Hits you across the eye. Well done.
What about "NGOs" of US, UK?
Ms.Ali is advising caution which I am sure this government will throw to the wind as our prime minister is KSA's man in Islamabad. What Raheel Sharif does is a different matter all together. When people emphasize upon the fact that Pakistan's foreign policy should be balanced or rather nonpartisan it means that we need to follow our own agenda. But apparently this step in the right direction is unforseen for several obvious reasons. Towing KSA's line will bring us into direct conflict with Iran vis a vis Syria. Iran and Syria have strategic understandings to the extent that an attack on Syria will be considered an attack on Iran. What aggravates the complexity of the situation is that Russia has just a solitary naval base at Tartus throughout the whole of middle east and Russians will not want the situation to change. Pakistan must not under any circumstances involve itself in this hornets nest. We have already too much on our plate.
Some of Pakistan's 'growing schismatic clashes' stem from Saudi Wahabi doctrine do they not?
I was invited to haqqani saab's book signing.. didn't go.. lol.. now I wish i had
Good..excerpt: "Shopping for a sugar daddy, Pakistan needs to understand that its interests and those of the sugar daddy may converge on some levels and may diverge on others. A pragmatic evaluation of the long-term national interest of Pakistan needsto be made in the light of the changing geopolitical scenario. Pakistan alone should define Pakistan’s national interest. When lollipops are accepted from a sugar daddy, there is always a price to pay. Pakistan must strive to build a balanced foreign policy, not based on imbalances. Imbalances lead to skewed relationships. Skewed relationships lead to an inevitable mess and inevitable messes to bitterness and mistrust."
Pak must not commit its troops in Syria on behest of KSA as it will disturb the fragile harmony internally, for some may not consider it to be a justified war which KSA is fighting. I agree with the above remarks that our policies must not make our neighbors our enemies.
Keep both Iran and Saudi Arabia at arms length, give them a warm handshake but avoid hugging either.
We must not poke our nose in others adventures unless it is in our national interest be it any body - our national interest must be paramount .
Expecting others to do it for us is nothing more than living in fools' paradise. Banking on KSA is ....... We made many a countries our enemy by our own policies and alliances and continue to do so even now.
Nations have to take risks. If the Saudis can bring peace by arm twisting the Talibans it may be worth it. The Saudis may already be part of the talks. As regards Iran we have never been real friends. Which other country aoart from Saudis at this stage is ready to back us ? Which one ? If we lose Saudi support too we will find ourselves in a total quagmire.
We are selling our integrity in the name of religious friendship! Was our past religious friendship an asset or liability?
Yaseen sahiba This is a very informative article, I must appreciate your hard work in this profession. Javed
Yasmeen---Both the articles are excellent---Déjà vu is outstanding—very well put together Warm regards JK
Dear YAA Very well written piece on recent Pak-Saudi nexus. NS has got a problem; he gives more importance to personal wishes and obligations than global and regional political realities. To top it up he is known to take damaging U-turns at odd times. Pakistan should concentrate on political equations with immediate neighbours. Those neighbours include China, Afghanistan, Iran and India. Not Saudi Arabia. By the way, what's happening to Pakistanis in Saudi Arabia these days? I think we should watch what happens to Saudi Royals for a year or so before sharing our bed with them on something which could be damaging for us in future. Heavens will not fall on us if we stay neutral in Syrian warfare. Regards GA
Deja vu is excellent reading. You hit the nail on the head.
Concise and serious! Question is does Pak have an alternative?
YAA, no surprises! Another in-depth analysis... My concern: Do those sitting in the parliament understand even a dimes worth of this piece? Do they have the capacity? Do they even know of all the events mentioned herein?
A great analysis and synopsis of the cue considerations for foreign policy in a nutshell. This paper needs to be read out loud where it matters. "Policy" is defined as a course or principle of action. We seem to be acting at the spur of the moment, impulsive in behavior. No analysis of pros and cons, no vision at all. Just moving forward directionless. This says it all: "Shopping for a sugar daddy, Pakistan needs to understand that its interests and those of the sugar daddy may converge on some levels and may diverge on others." However, not possible when interest of Pakistan is the least of those at the helm!
Does a country always need to look for a Sugar Daddy ? One would hope that an 67 year old adult would have already learned to walk on its own and support itself. There are rumours swirling that the heightened high level interaction with Saudi Arabia is the demand from them for the Nuclear Weapons they claim to have paid for. Basically they want to cash in on some IOU's coming due. I hope this is not true though I fear the worst. If there is an iota of Truth in these rumours it could be the final nail in the coffin of a Nation that could never come to terms with its own existence, trying multiple methods to destroy itself, while blaming everyone else. May wisdom prevail because the future of 200 million cannot be sacrificed at the alter of political expediency, dogma or Ideology.
Pakistan shall rise. We all gonna see it in near future.. Dont worry..
All anti Islamic organizations including biggest all time terrorists e.g. MQM support and incite military operation to weaken it
I love Tuesday mornings as I have the best thing to look forward to with my breakfast... @yasmeen_9 s Op-Ed.
Yes Pakistan must have an independent FP but should take a principled stance on #Syria.Well written indeed! Bravo!
Stop Pakistan from arming Syrian rebels on Saudi instigation they arer Al-qaeeda & talebans!
The author is right ... Pakistan is that spoiled child, that is addicted to lollipops and the sugar daddies ... !! ... old habits die hard ... not east to get rid of the addiction ... !!
Pakistan's foreign policy seems to hinge on 2 principles : (a) blindly hate India and (b) blindly love Saudi Arabia.
Consequences are there for all to see: - Free flowing Chinese imports resulting in destruction of local Industry - Awarding of big projects to Chinese without global competitive bidding - loss of revenue for the country and selling assets cheap. - Antagonism with an important neighbour and source of oil - Iran. Along with damaging relations with all Shia nations. - Hatred of Afghans.
Carry on!
Invasion of Pakistan by Iran, India and Afghanistan can achieve following scenario: Fast way for Iran to achieve nuclear capability, dismantle non state infrastructure and stabilize Afghanistan. Pakistan once again has made a policy decision by which the WMD will be placed in the hands of some non state actors. Pakistan is acting as a supplier of non state actors for Muslim world where they will be used as an extension of policy. Instead of acting as neutral party Pakistan is contributing to the violence in other parts of world and than people say they are fed up with violence.
When are we, even those who get us into such binds, going to understand the true reason for such liaisons is never the public or its benefits. It is all about protecting the personal wealth.
What difference does it make to a peasant on the farm struggling for each meal. Where USA is an ally or Saudi Arabia is an ally. The wealth that is exchanges at the government level rarely if ever trickles down to such deprived people. Reminds me of rain falling in Sahara desert. It never reaches the ground. The rain drops get evaporated long before they reach the ground.
Think about these deprived individuals at ever step. It is not the wealth from Sugar Dadies that will improve Pakistan. It is harvesting of energies of the massive and strong unemployed population of the country and reinvesting its conversion to money back into the nation. It is only logical.
Syed Wajahat Hussain
COAS’s visit to Saudi Arabia and Saudi Defence Minister visiting Pakistan were indications that something was cooking. This myopic approach to cooperate with KSA against Syria is going to cost Pakistan too much too bear
Dear YAA, An excellent, hard hitting piece. To the point & damn- no one could have presented the situation as crisply!