The writer is a columnist. He is also a former editor of the Mumbai-based English newspaper Mid Day and the Gujarati paper Divya Bhaskar
aakar.patel@tribune.com.pk
It is important to note here that the BJP in Delhi actually won a plurality of both the votes and the seats, though it could not win a majority.
But should this pattern repeat across India’s large and midsized cities, it is possible that the BJP will be denied votes nationally in the same manner as it was in Delhi.
The other way of looking at it is to see the underlying sentiment that has propelled the rise of the AAP. It is quite remarkable what the party has achieved, which is the first victory by a party completely independent of a caste base, in north India.
What were the issues on which it won votes? It is thought that there were such things as corruption in public life and inefficient government. Let us assume this is the case, even though there are other views on this. For instance, the Union Minister for Agriculture, Sharad Pawar, thinks that the AAP’s supporters were also those who voted in favour of corruption (by responding to promises of ‘regularising’ their illegal colonies) and undermining the state’s efficiency and finances (by responding to promises of free power and free water).
It is difficult to accept, certainly for those outside Delhi, that the AAP is seen by most Indians as some sort of silver bullet to kill corruption and slipshod governance with. The BJP’s prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi, is the man who attracts much and probably most of these votes. The AAP wants its voters to see him in the same way as the Congress and they keep saying that the Congress and the BJP are ‘two sides of the same coin’. However, that’s not how it was seen in Delhi where the BJP’s vote bank held over what had been secured in the last election, dropping just under two per cent. It is the anti-Congress votes the party was expecting that were taken away from it.
Is the AAP placed to take those away in other places as well? Delhi may not be a one-off for the AAP, but it does not have the time to get its act together on hundreds of Lok Sabha seats across two and a half dozen states.
Its great lessons in Delhi may well be replicable, especially those for fundraising and selecting candidates. But putting out a national campaign will need more resources and certainly more time than this brave little party has.
The other thing is: how many seats does it need to cheat the BJP of a win? Or how much of the vote does it need to draw away to produce the same result even without winning many seats? The Congress won just under 120 million votes in 2009, while the BJP won 78.4 million votes. That was about half the total vote (Congress got over 28 per cent and the BJP over 18 per cent). Both parties, in particular the BJP, are missing from some major states, such as Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. To put this in perspective, the AAP got 2.5 million votes in the Delhi elections. This is admirable and — as I have accepted — quite unprecedented, but it also shows how gigantic the task is.
My view is that the BJP’s presence in major states and its superior organisational capacity should be able to easily convert those attracted to the siren call of Modi. And that the AAP will trouble the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections much less than it did in Delhi.
Published in The Express Tribune, January 12th, 2014.
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COMMENTS (8)
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AAP is definitely a killer of congress. soon congress will be wiped out as history and thereby fulfill Gandhi's ambition.
Too fast... my friend... AAP is probably peaking now... Its mostly a party of overqualified pundits.. everybody's a leader in his/her place... Running an anti-corruption campaign is easier than running a country the size of India
AAP's rise is a great development. But it is utterly wrong to believe that they will be limited only because of absence of infrastructure. They simply do not possess what it takes to be a national player, not yet. They have taken no national stands, and the ones they have taken will not get them very far. My younger brother and his entire family voted for AAP in Delhi, but they will be voting Modi for national elections. There is a huge difference in scale and in the nature of their responsibilities between being the Chief Minister of Delhi with no track record and possibly, the Prime Minister of India. People understand that voting AAP in national elections may be playing with the fire of having the Congress back in power - which no one wants.
for the first time in Indian history we are looking at a chance where congress will be reduced to a third place.
Also, don't forget that AAP is formed the gOVT with congress support. People already saw that, Voting AAP is like bringing congress back. AAP may get couple of thousands in every constituency. When it comes to national elections, they have to come-up with a manifesto. So far no one knows what their policies are. All they talked was corruption, it may just work for Delhi. It's not the case when it goes to each state, farmers issues, local power issues etc.. list goes bigger. Once they spell their stand, you will see how radical or bad for the country, AAP rise will happen as long as they are fresh and don't have manifesto to spell the stand on different issues. BJP will be the biggest gainer as we headed towards April.
Best of democracies suffer inbuilt and inherent inertia to the extent that strongest movements promising change are sometimes able to just cause ripples and not any major change. It was witnessed when President Obama was elected in the U.S., where there is a tremendous frustration among the masses at myriads of problems. People were expecting massive changes. President Obama proved to be a complete dud disappointing millions of people; specially among the black community. The system has inbuilt inertia. That the Indian masses are frustrated by corruption, nepotism, inflated costs of utilities, and the difficulties of life in general, is a given. AAP will make a difference that would be reflected in the long run; in the short term do not expect earth shattering changes because of the reasons Mr. Patel has succinctly stated.
IMHO the BJP can deny Congress the government in the general elections by sharpening their negotiating skills. This they did not show in Delhi. They could have allowed AAP's Kejriwal to form the government but asked him to share ministries that way they could have totally destroyed the Congress. They should try this strategy with other like minded parties before the general elections and get NaMo in power. Let us see if they have the intelligence to do this and if they fail Congress will form the government to India's detriment.