Trilateral hopes

As things stand, peace in Afghanistan is the least likely outcome of the imminent drawdown and all players know that.

There have been dozens of meetings about where to go next with the Afghan conundrum since the fall of the Taliban, but none have produced a roadmap that all parties would sign up to. And the Taliban, in their various iterations, have never been a part of, or invited to, a single one of the meetings that will be powerful determinants of their future in any Afghan government. They have been the empty chair at the table, and they were absent again on October 29 in London, as the fourth trilateral summit organised by the British concluded with an anodyne statement to the effect that all parties would continue to support the peace and reconciliation process in Afghanistan as the 2014 date for the drawdown of US and other foreign combat troops, draws nigh. On a positive note, the participants agreed that a delegation from the High Peace Council will meet Mullah Baradar in Pakistan — a small step in the right direction.



Afghan President Hamid Karzai has mere months in office left and is yesterday’s man, with tomorrow’s man an election away. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, meanwhile, appears to be making up foreign policy as he goes along. He has his own preoccupations with terrorism, with many of the problems attendant upon internal violence having deep roots in Afghanistan. He assured the British and Afghan leaders that his government would not support any particular group in Afghanistan post to 2014, doubtless speaking with an eye and ear to the east as Indian flanking moves have effectively neutered the never-robust doctrine of strategic depth. His words will be taken with a large pinch of salt by many, not least the Americans who have thrown a considerable spanner in the works. As the summit concluded a report was published in The New York Times that said the Americans had caught the Afghans in an attempt to gain traction with Pakistan by forming an alliance with the outlawed TTP. President Karzai is said to be ‘fuming’ at the American intervention. As things stand, peace in Afghanistan is the least likely outcome of the imminent drawdown and all the players know that.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 31^st, 2013.

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