The writer is an independent social scientist and author of Military Inc.
But there is also the possibility that the government might be checking the temperature of how would people react to such news. After all, one of the media group is reputed to be close to the hearts of the Sharif brothers. It is also noteworthy that since Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s initial announcement to follow the principle of seniority in appointing senior commanders, a gentle whispering sound could be heard in policy-making circles and the larger strategic community. Thus far, there doesn’t seem to be a consensus on any of the names even within the military, which seems to open up possibilities for individual generals to campaign for themselves. Some of the present contenders whose names have come up include Corps Commander Lahore, DG ISI and the Corps Commander Mangla. The army is certainly in no mood to let go of the position of the CJCSC to a junior service, especially after certain critical areas were added to the CJCSC mandate under the Musharraf regime. However, if Nawaz Sharif’s intention was to set the civil-military balance right, then he has to act the constitutional boss rather than the dummy, who will rubber-stamp a decision or get pushed around by powerful groups within GHQ. He already seems to be backing down in certain areas as demonstrated by creating the National Security Council (NSC), which puts the top military brass at par with the civilian leadership.
The NSC decision is not constructive for a positive civil-military balance in the long run. Despite more civilians on the Council, the fact that the military dominates information and intelligence and is a key political player will enable it to dominate the decision-making. The fact that Nawaz Sharif could not put life into the Cabinet Committee for Defence and created the NSC instead speaks volumes of where the power lies at the moment. Sources suggest that making of the national security strategy and counter-terrorism policy were outsourced to the National Defence University team or someone in the GHQ. This indicates a weakening of resolve to turn the civil-military balance around. It will certainly make a lot of sense if the prime minister would review his personal policymaking behaviour and that of his party. The fact that he has kept the defence portfolio to himself without engaging with a team that could advise him or guide him in his interactions is just one of the issues. The other is a more generic problem within the PML-N of over-centralised decision-making, which is weakening institutions around the government, especially those that could strengthen it in combating terrorism or even making a counterterrorism policy. The Sikandar fiasco is a reminder of many ills but particularly the problem of over-centralised policymaking. The interior minister controlled a matter that could be handled by a senior police officer. The police sadly appeared to be impotent due to pressure from both the government and the judiciary that has contributed in bringing the state bureaucracy to a halt. Punjab is full of cases where police either kill criminals in fake encounters and earn the confidence of the chief minister or do not act against jihadis and terrorists at all out of fear of the military, judges and the CM.
In any case, the policy on counterterrorism is being made in secrecy with an initial leak to the press. These are issues that need greater consultation at several levels, which the government does not seem to be doing. The prime minister must remember that bringing structural reforms and strengthening consultation is critical for policymaking. There are those who had voted for him thinking that he will show greater nerve in improving the civil-military balance on which depends a lot of other strategic issues. Such odd leaks mentioned above weaken rather than strengthen the government. Notwithstanding the threats, he has to move to take ownership of national security policymaking and appointing senior commanders.
Published in The Express Tribune, September 5th, 2013.
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Rashad Mahmood is going to be the next chief. :( CJCSC will be from PAF or PN probably. But if the next CJCSC is from Army then he'll be Haroon Aslam :) Tariq Khan will hopefully get a PSO post or even another command.
It will take several years of sustained good governance by the Civilians to dislodge the military from the pre-eminence it has acquired for itself over a half century. And a lot of political will.
@mahmood: Now you know where the billions of dollars that come into Pakistan in the form of grants, aids etc go? Now you know why the military is so loath to let go of the power that it has usurped till date? The generals are living a first world life in a third world country. The story is the same in any 3rd world country which has an oligarchy ruling it, not just Pakistan.
@K Alam: The state bureaucracy is corrupt to the core and has lost it's credibility built by imminent bureaucrats of the past old days.....the present lot are politically appointed or politically patronized and hence, corrupt and examples are many we're rules are bent to accommodate their personal benefits over country's interest....there are some very best bureaucrats who can be counted on finger tips, but those try to remain in the background with respect unlike the majority of bureaucrats who are corrupt and guides the politician ministers into corruption.....no wonder these corrupt bureaucrats and police depts will remain under pressure due to their political patronage....
Over centralized policy making is manufacturing defect not only in PML (N) elite rather in whole civil and military elite of Pakistan. I consider it legacy of feudalism. Might be when majority of national cream is taken from middle class this mind set can change.
"Just a few days ago, the silence of one’s peaceful evening was broken up by a breaking news running on a couple of channels " . Aren't these breaking news keep coming every other second!
I totally agree with your following statement:-
"The police sadly appeared to be impotent due to pressure from both the government and the judiciary that has contributed in bringing the state bureaucracy to a halt."
thanks author for highlighting such important issues,you mentioned mangla corps, i visited mangla cantts some time back, i was amazed by its similarity to america. i was informed by one of the officers that's because it was built by an american company, never the less it's an amazing place iv'e not seen anything like it in pakistan.
What is a National Security Strategy and why Pakistan needs it? Why is this even a subject of discussion? Neither do Pakistan need some high sounding counterterrorism policy. Pak needs a strategy to counter domestic terrorism. Pakistan doesn't need another COIN or similar policies that US adopted. Those policies were for the countries US occupied and called the local indigenous people fighting against the US occupation, terrorists. US never implemented those policies internally. Pakistan is dealing with internal terrorism, and the country needs an effective strategy to deal with the domestic terrorism. Primarily, as a severe law and order breakdown situation. Once a strategy to deal with law order breakdown is developed, progress will be made against the domestic terrorists. It is clear that Nawaz Government has already agreed on some strategy, and the proposed actions in Karachi are part of that.
That is the simple reason Nawaz government has handed National security policy or that high sounding counterterrorism policy over to the Army to play with it. While he is enhancing the civilian intelligence capabilities, and will use Rangers where breakdown is severe such as in Karachi.
Appointment of the new chief is not an issue; the issue is the survival of the country;