The importance of by-elections

The defeat is significant for the PTI as it is the first public verdict on its performance in the province.

Last week, Pakistan witnessed the biggest by-elections in its electoral history. A total of 15 National Assembly and 26 provincial assembly seats were up for grabs. In parliamentary democracies, especially in the Commonwealth, by-elections are a very important facet of the electoral practice, but sadly, their significance is largely ignored in Pakistan. Not only are by-elections usually ignored in Pakistan (this time round, the sheer number of seats attracted attention, not the exercise itself), turnout is usually so low that the results become a foregone conclusion. Even in these by-elections, the turnout ranged from 18-55 per cent, which hardly mirrored the over 50 per cent turnout in most constituencies during the May 2013 general elections. But as we mature in the democratic practice, we must begin to take by-elections seriously.

Historically, by-elections are a gauge by which the popularity of the incumbent government is measured. Even though such democratic norms have still to be instilled in Pakistan, these by-elections are significant for a few reasons. First, they confirmed the political changes coming in Khyber-Pakhtunkhawa (K-P). It is the only province, which has shown strong anti-incumbency voting in the last few general elections. It elected the MMA government in 2002 but voted it out in 2008 when it voted the ANP in. Then in 2013, the province routed the ANP and voted in the PTI. In the by-elections last week, however, the PTI lost the NA-1 seat won by Imran Khan in May to the ANP’s Ghulam Bilour. This tells us that the people of K-P will vote any government out which does not deliver. Such was the fate of the MMA and the ANP and now looms on the horizon for the PTI. This defeat is significant for the PTI as it is the first public verdict on its performance in the province. Even the low voter turnout shows that the PTI, which long claimed that it had brought the non-voting masses to the ballot box, failed to even bring a third of the electorate to the polling booth in the by-election. The PTI should also see this defeat as an assessment of its policies, especially concerning the Taliban, in the province. This loss, coupled with the defeat in the Mianwali by-election, should make the PTI pause and think. It has arrived on the political scene but still needs to learn how to respond to the electorate.

Secondly, these by-elections showed the PML-N’s continuing popularity. It won thumping majorities in almost all the seats it vacated, but the close margins and its loss in Dera Ghazi Khan, Rajanpur and Okara should keep it on its toes. The people have reposed trust in the party, but the voters are closely watching its performance and if it does not deliver, it will certainly lose such strong support. The same is the case with the MQM. It remains popular in Karachi but the PTI’s presence is increasingly becoming a strong alternative to the hitherto unchallenged MQM.

Thirdly, these by-elections showed that the PPP is not a dead party. It won seats in Muzzafargarh and Sanghar, where in the latter it dislodged the PML-F after a long time. This showed that the PPP still has appeal and that its power to motivate voters is still present. The PPP’s strong ideological base, with its intrinsic revolutionary message, might have suffered a blow in the previous government, but is still a force and might just resurrect itself. It will be quite interesting to follow the PPP’s development as it reforms and re-emerges in the next few years.

The almost peaceful passing of the by-elections and the excitement it generated in a few constituencies (especially where the turnout was over 50 per cemt) is a good omen for Pakistan. Rather than squabbling over whether the elections were rigged or not (and I am sure there were some discrepancies), we should focus on what these by-elections tell us in terms of the choices the voters — our ultimate masters — are making and what they mean for those in government. Democracy is a process where the voters’ voices need to be central and Pakistan has just embarked on this journey. Let us hope that we are not derailed this time.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 27^th, 2013.

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