The search for a new drone policy

Pakistan’s existence is threatened by the economic and energy challenges rather than by drone attacks.

It may be possible for a political party in Pakistan to perform better in elections by playing up the anti-American and anti-drone attack disposition but no federal government can adopt these two issues as the hallmark of its foreign and security policies. The freedom to make unrealistic promises and wild statements is available to a leader and a party out of power, especially in the course of an election campaign. However, such an option cannot be exercised by a ruling party.

Imran Khan, chief of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), can afford to ask the leaders of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) to use the Air Force to shoot down American drone aircraft. This enables him to show his supporters that he can take on the superpower and embarrass Nawaz Sharif and the PML-N, whom he sees as his main political adversary.

If the PML-N leaders review their statements before the elections and during the election campaign, they will know that they were no less critical of the PPP-led federal government for pursuing pro-America policies in the region, quietly endorsing the drone attacks and unnecessarily dragging Pakistan into the American war on terrorism. Though Nawaz Sharif was often cautious, his colleagues never shied away from demanding an end to security operations in the tribal areas and withdrawal from the ongoing “American war on terrorism”.

Therefore, Imran Khan’s demand to the PML-N leadership for shooting down drone aircraft is not completely baseless. However, with the electoral victory that has opened the PML-N’s way to state power, it cannot implement all what it had been saying about Pakistan’s relations with the US and drone attacks in the tribal areas. It is interesting to note that some leaders of the PML-N criticised Imran’s demand in TV talk shows. Their perspective appeared close to the last PPP government.

The PTI is leading the coalition government in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) and its new chief minister boasted in his first address to the provincial assembly that the PTI would have responded differently to the drone attack if it had its government at the federal level. The PTI is not expected to set up the government at the federal level in the near future. The K-P provincial government is at its command and it would be interesting to see how it deals with the Taliban and other militants in K-P and the tribal areas. Will it cultivate a special accommodating relationship with the Taliban groups to save Peshawar, Bannu and other cities from suicide attacks and other bombings by the Taliban? What kind of concessions it offers to them in return for peace in K-P? Perhaps, it may adopt a policy similar to the MMA government (2002-2007) of letting the Taliban spread quietly in the settled areas in return for no attacks. Another issue, the American/Nato goods from Afghanistan are passing through K-P on way to Karachi for return shipment. Furthermore, most Pakistani troops pass through K-P on their way to the tribal areas. What would be the PTI government’s policies towards these two issues?

There is no military solution of the drone attacks in the tribal areas. The diplomatic option is available. The statement by Nawaz Sharif on May 31 that drone attacks violate Pakistan’s sovereignty and negate the UN Charter is a reiteration of the policy of the erstwhile PPP government. Pakistan’s Foreign Office criticised the drone attack as a violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty and termed it unhelpful in fighting terrorism, within a day of the drone attack.

If the PML-N leadership wants to put an end to drone attacks and increase its foreign policy options, it needs to adopt a number of measures pertaining to Pakistan’s domestic situation.

The PML-N should remember the two basic principles of the present-day globalised international system. First, the foreign policy strength of a country is derived from its domestic political stability and economic resilience. Second, the diplomatic clout of a country also depends on positive and multifaceted economic, trade and cultural ties with the rest of the world. Isolation is no option for any state today. It is, therefore, important to understand how the world looks at Pakistan and what are the concerns of other countries about Pakistan?

Pakistan should establish its firm control over the tribal agencies, including North Waziristan in order to make the sovereignty argument credible at the international level. However, if Pakistan is unable to assert its primacy in all tribal areas in the near future, its capacity to do so will be reduced further after 2014 when most American troops quit Afghanistan and it plunges into a bitter internal strife.

Drones are a foreign policy side show. The real test of the PML-N government is how it handles domestic problems like the faltering economy, electric power and gas shortages, internal law and order problems, especially religious extremism and terrorism.

If the new federal government is able to salvage the economy in a manner that it attracts internal and external investment in large quantity and creates new jobs, it will be better placed to pursue a more autonomous foreign policy. These objectives cannot be achieved without addressing the energy problem, which has three interlinked dimensions: immediate mobilisation of funds to enable the power generation companies to buy fuel; management and distribution of electricity; and long-term new projects.

Other issues pertaining to the economy are reduction of wastage of resources, increased tax and revenue collection and expansion of the tax net. Economic turnaround can also be facilitated by improved relations with neighbours, especially strengthening economic ties and energy related cooperation

The new government should avoid getting into polemics on drones either within Pakistan or outside because this will not bring an end to drone strikes. Rather, push it to the background and give the highest priority to meeting the economic and energy challenges and bring terrorism under control by using a carrot and stick approach. Pakistan’s existence is threatened by these challenges rather than by drone attacks.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 3^rd, 2013.                                                                                          

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