Analysis: The Tiger’s tightrope

What are Nawaz Sharif’s top priorities likely to be, and how will he tackle them?

KARACHI:

Nawaz Sharif, the incoming prime minister, says one of his top priorities will be the revival of economy, but in order to achieve this goal, a lot of other tasks must first be handled. Thus, the areas he must now focus on are: terrorism and extremism, the law and order situation in Balochistan and Karachi, the energy crisis, political instability and relations with India.

The PML-N chief will be looking at taking both the political and military leadership on board before initiating any peace talks with the Taliban. Sharif has already engaged Maulana Fazlur Rehman in this regard and may assign the JUI-F leader an important role in any formal talks with the Taliban. Sharif’s most important meeting, however, will be with the Chief of Army Staff. The PML-N will likely meet General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani in the coming weeks.

It will be interesting to see how far the PML-N government will endorse Gen Kayani’s statement on owning the ‘War on Terror’ a month back. The Taliban too will be anxiously waiting for Sharif to unveil his policy on the war on terror and relations with the US.

The volatile situation in Balochistan is another issue Sharif will want the army chief’s views on and would seek to address on a priority basis. The PML-N chief would also seek to engage Baloch insurgent groups, which boycotted Saturday’s elections, and at the same time take on board other important leaders in the province, such as Balochistan National Party-Mengal chief Akhtar Mengal and Mir Hasil Bizenjo.

The BNP-M/PML-N relationship may be adversely affected, however, if PML-N Balochistan chapter president Sanaullah Zehri ends up becoming the chief minister. Zehri had earlier accused Mengal of involvement in the recent attack on his convoy.

The other area where he will need the army chief’s input is when it comes to dealing with Karachi.

The PML-N chief has quite a few plans for the country’s economic hub and has often stated that peace in the city is directly linked with the nation’s economic development. But his past decisions regarding Karachi – ordering the 1992 Karachi operation and imposing governor’s rule in 1998 – did not succeed in bringing about any lasting peace in the city.

Although Sharif may choose to engage the Muttahida Qaumi Movement this time around, he will be unable to offer the party much considering the thinking prevalent in the PML-N camp.

A difficult decision the PML-N government may have to take would be whether to initiate a high treason case against former president General Pervez Musharraf. The gravity and historic weight of this decision can be gauged by the fact that no government in Pakistan so far has ever tried a military dictator. While the PML-N chief has been quite firm about trying Musharraf for treason, his government would likely avoid any taking any hasty decision in order to dispel any impression of vindictiveness.

Sharif might also adopt a policy of ‘restraint’ when dealing with pending cases against President Asif Ali Zardari as well. The cases would possibly only be reopened if Zardari either loses or chooses not to contest the upcoming presidential elections.

The PML-N chief would be looking to keep the political temperature down, at least initially, to allow him to concentrate on fixing the economy and confronting terrorism. He has already told his financial advisors – Ishaq Dar and Sartaj Aziz – that the PML-N government’s first budget has to be ‘people friendly’.

Sharif will get a rousing reception when he enters Parliament for the first time since 1999. He will create a record if he ends up taking oath as the prime minister for a third time. Thanks to the PPP-led Parliament, the bar on anyone becoming premier for more than two terms has been abolished.

While he will spell out his party’s priorities in his first address upon taking oath, he will most likely avoid touching upon ‘sensitive’ issues. Learning from past mistakes, he will avoid confronting the establishment but at the same time will establish his political writ.

Above all, Sharif will leave important pending cases to the judiciary but his government would act fast on implementing the court’s pending decisions.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 17^th, 2013.