The writer is the founding CEO of ROZEE.PK, a venture capital-backed leading online recruiting platform
—Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto after Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour, 1941
It takes a lot to get the educated middle class out on the streets. Historically, plagued with the belief that its vote doesn’t count, political passion has been found in ample quantities during living room debates but seldom put to action. A recent survey conducted by ROZEE.PK of internet-enabled working professionals found that in 2008, only 35 per cent bothered to vote, considerably lower than the 44 per cent overall turnout.
Of the 272 National Assembly seats, a chunky 30 per cent lie in urbanised areas of the country. The level of internet penetration is disproportionately high in these areas, around 30 per cent to be precise. Clearly, when you do the math, the educated internet-enabled middle class does matter and can potentially change destinies of candidates.
The online survey measured opinions of over 10,000 educated professionals from across the country, sampling from ROZEE.PK’s 16 million annual unique Pakistani visitors. The majority of respondents hailed from large urban population centres including Lahore, Karachi, Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Peshawar and Faisalabad. Their average age was 27 years. Here are some of the findings.
According to the survey results, the sleeping educated middle class has emphatically decided to come out of their living rooms. Over 95 per cent are registered to vote and 93 per cent of them indicated that they plan on casting their vote on May 11. This is quite a change: only 35 per cent of them participated in the 2008 elections.
Over 70 per cent of respondents felt that things will improve after the elections. Only six per cent thought that the situation will deteriorate. The remaining 24 per cent were unsure. The vast majority thought that the elections will be held on time and 42 per cent felt they would be fair. Only 12 per cent thought the elections will not be held fairly.
Whereas respondents who voted in 2008 favoured the PML-N with a 46 per cent majority, followed by the PPP with 19 per cent, the winds have clearly changed. The same respondents now plan on voting for the PTI by a whopping 70 per cent majority, followed by the PML-N at 19 per cent. The PPP has dropped to a mere two per cent. When asked who they would like to see as the next prime minister of Pakistan, 71 per cent of respondents selected Imran Khan.
A June 2011 poll revealed that 61 per cent of this same demographic favoured Imran Khan as the country’s next leader but only 17 per cent of them felt he had a realistic shot at winning. Comparatively, of the 71 per cent who favour Imran Khan now, 63 per cent feel he will actually win a majority of seats. This marks a dramatic rise in confidence amongst Imran Khan’s supporters.
Of all the major parties, the PPP enjoys the largest support from rural voters. Respondents report that their median household size is five members and an overwhelming 75 per cent of them claim that their entire household will be voting for the same candidate. It would appear that living room conversations have resulted in consensus amongst family members.
The educated middle class will vote along party lines. Some 74 per cent of respondents reveal that their decision on who to vote for will primarily be influenced by the party of the candidate rather than the candidate’s credentials.
Frustration with high levels of corruption, terrorism, power shortages and joblessness has awakened the sleeping giant. When asked what the top priority should be of the new government, 23 per cent suggest that ending corruption is at the front of the queue. Eradicating terrorism, ending power cuts and increasing employment all tie for second place with 19 per cent.
The most pressing concerns cited above have deteriorated people’s quality of life to unbearable levels, which has prompted an unprecedented 93 per cent projected turnout amongst educated, urban middle class voters on May 11. The sleeping educated urban middle class giant has awakened, filled with hope and a strong resolve. It’s about time.
Published in The Express Tribune, May 9th, 2013.
COMMENTS (24)
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@Muhammad Adil Nawaz khan: Now I hope everyone will agree that my assumption was totally right..........
Current situation of pakistan is a outcome of wrong selection of our representatives. All party workers and their leaders are Pakistani, love for all.
We as a nation are going downward in every field of life. if you look arround, you will see lack of planning every where. there is no long term goal ahead in the minds of current rulers. they are just buying few local leaders and rule. Now, we have to change this snerio by using our vote.
I do not know from where i get back the same faith on Imran Khan which i had in 1992 when i was a university student that he will win for Pakistan .
I am sure he can bring the change and first time in my life i am going to vote with my family for Imran Khan.
If you have a true faith on your leader then Vote for him.
M. Babar Zaman Khan
I do hope for change i wish Ik sir come ... or else our morale will go down again and no one will come out to vote for PTI again after 5 years
Brilliant analysis. Educated citizens have felt they are not part of the democratic process because of their perceived small numbers. This data and analysis dispels that their votes are inconsequential. Exciting times.
Framing of the survay questionare influence the outcomes of the survay.
PTI has the support of Educated upper middle class and Elite class of the Urban areas of Pakistan. They see PTI as a reformers party which can bring a positive change by throwing everything which is traditional part of of our society. There vote is surprising vote. At the same time PML N is the most expected winner of the 2013 elections. They have the traditional as well as the middle class vote. PML N is the amalgamation of the moderate and liberal political views which have a relatively good support of the right wing elements in the country which is very much necessary in Pakistan. So that's why there is great chance that PML N will form the next Govt. in Pakistan. Briefly saying for me PTI will get majority next time , not this time, because many people still feel that PML N not got their full term that they can give there best. So they also feel that PTI vote is relatively inexperienced one which don't understand how to tackle the on going situation. But importantly even now no one believe that Imran khan is wrong person and favoured there ideas as well, but even though they believe that not this time,.. This time Nawaz Sharif has done enough to get simple majority. Its my own analysis and assumption and the rest of the things will be cleared the day after tomorrow. Best wishes for the democracy in Pakistan.
I am surprised, instead of your personal views I would like to know the numbers, so it could be more effective and easy to understand. well, I am surprised, where are other parties??? amazing. its totally discouraging that things are only towards one or two parties, I was expecting some good results rather than a discussion which anyone can see in any news channel, from more experienced journalist.
In short I am disappointed!
We, the youth of Pakistan, favor Imran Khan, not just because he has proved himself a good leader, but because he is our only hope against all that we have suffered, because of all the political parties who have been in the govt. for the last 66 years.
@manzoor: "Urban middle class used to be supprters of Musharraf are now supporting Imran Khan just out of dream for “Naya Pakistan”.." . Keep on dreamin'.
An excellent article; whether people support the PTI or not, it is evident that Imran Khan’s relentless campaigning has helped galvanize this generation into action and widened political debate and participation. It would be a moment of triumph for Pakistan if ‘change’ is voted into power. An event that may even surpass the PPP coming into power in the 1970s. These are desperate, but exciting time.
Urban middle class used to be supprters of Musharraf are now supporting Imran Khan just out of dream for "Naya Pakistan"..
@Salman: over 10,000 people across Pakistan took the survey: http://research.rozee.pk/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/ROZEE.PK-Survey-Elections-Pakistan-2013.pdf
The sleeping educated urban middle class giant has awakened, filled with hope and a strong resolve. It’s about time!!!
It is! Naya Pakistan! Insha Allah!!!
Great piece Monis!
I was wondering why nobody has taken the initiative to write about the internet population. It's great to see the results of the survey, and here's hoping that at least this is an eye opener for the rest of us !
The survey results can be downloaded from here: http://research.rozee.pk/2013/05/awakening-sleeping-giant/f
You forget to mention how much people take part in survey? if 1000 people take part thn there is no value of this survey.
If voters again bring PPPP & ML (N) to form govts. in Pakistan we should wash our hands off this country.
Monis, Pakistan is not Silicon Valley and will vote for those most locally familiar. Imran Khan and Musharraf are quite popular amongst the people that were surveyed but since 70% of the country is still mostly rural PML(N) and the PPP will retain a strong presence. The magic will happen after the polls. It will take a coalition once again to form the government and the point man for that will be the sitting President....
@Roni: PPP was never been much of an urban middle class party, which seems to be the main audience that contributed to the survey. And writer never talked about the sample being representative of the whole population, but just a specific segment.
Correctly said. The people will vote against corruption, terrorist attacks, load shedding, inept governance etc but the leaders who will come into office will be corrupt, will support extremists, will not put an end to load shedding, will be even more inept at governing etc and will claim that ' we were elected by the people '. They will again betray the people and the nation because we have no remedy, no counter weight, no credible process of accountability and no credible judicial system. If democracy is just not a voting exercise without the requisite infrastructure to make it work it becomes a farce............and that is the position as it stands today.
Kudos to PTI for mobilizing the youth of the urban middle class and giving them a reason to dream of greener pastures, i.e a Naya Pakistan...and god willing, this dream WILL become a reality on the 11th of May!!! Please please please go out and recruit as many people to vote for PTI as possible. Be part of this change so that 50 years down the line when you are living in a prosperous Pakistan you can tell your grand children that you were one of the soldiers who fought for NAYA PAKISTAN.
This survey as you said does not represent common masses. I can draw just one thing out of it, Youth and especially educated youth are supporting PTI by two third majority and one third of them are supporting PML-N. We have very interesting battle coming up in next 2 days :) However, I feel PML-N is still front runner with some clear margin of seats.