Opening games

Latest defections show politicians on ground are aware of where wind blows from & are attempting to ride the current.

When defections begin and legislators start switching loyalties, we can say with some certainty that elections are around the corner. For most politicians, the need to win a seat and make it into the assembly takes over all else — including party loyalties — and we are now seeing this process taking place in earnest. In Punjab, there has been of late a sudden wave of defections to the PML-N. Nine PPP MPAs have switched over, along with two PML-Q MNAs. They have been accepted into the PML-N ranks, with the switchover being made in the presence of key PML-N leaders. The PPP parliamentary leadership in Punjab has already served notices to the defecting MPAs, written to the speaker and also to the Election Commission of Pakistan, seeking disqualification under Articles 62 and 63 of the Constitution.

But quite beyond the legalities, the situation shows the political profile in Punjab when it comes to determining the overall outcome. It is quite clear that in the province it considers its home ground, the PML-N has an upswing, having overtaken the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf which, at one point, had shown a sudden spike in popularity. The latest defections also show that politicians on the ground are aware of where the wind blows from and are attempting to ride along the current. The growing confidence of the PML-N is, of course, one reason why it is pressing so hard for polls and backing the PPP on this — something that by good fortune works well for our democracy.

But the tide is not entirely one-sided. Powerful figures like Saif Khosa, son of senior PML-N figure Zulfikar Khosa, have switched over to the PPP. The family has a strong base in Dera Ghazi Khan. There have been other changes, too, and no doubt, more will follow. But the general trend is emerging strongly, and for now, it seems that the PML-N may be the best-placed party in Punjab, though some close battles are expected in the south of the province.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 21^st, 2013.