Analysis: A game of shadows

MQM chief has asked the government to accede to Qadri’s demands.

Will the PPP-led coalition government be able to reach the finish line – 16th March 2013 – unscathed, announce the date for the next election and form a caretaker government in accordance with the dictates of the Constitution? In the light of the developments of the past few days, it looks almost impossible.

Qadri’s long march has now turned into a sit-in of thousands of people, including women and children. They are camped right in front of the unapproachable D-Chowk with a long line of huge containers separating them from a large contingent of well-armed police and FC personnel. This is all that stands between the marchers and parliament itself.

But for Qadri and his devotees, parliament and the government effectively ceased to exist as of 11:00 am on Tuesday, as per his announcement to that effect late Monday night. Prior to this, the Balochistan government was fired by the president and governor’s rule was imposed in the province. Immediately after 11am yesterday the Supreme Court asked NAB to arrest Prime Minister Raja Pervaiz Ashraf, creating the impression that these two developments were the result of the Qadri march and sit-in. Indeed Qadri himself has already counted them as his successes, claiming that half the task has been accomplished and that the next half would be completed by Wednesday (today). Clearly, he is predicting the end of the
de-facto government by midnight tonight (Wednesday).

Meanwhile MQM chief Altaf Hussain, who had his party withdraw from the Qadri march at the eleventh hour, has asked the government to accede to Qadri’s demands. In a related development, PTI chief Imran Khan has asked for President Zardari’s resignation as, according to him, fair, free and impartial elections are not possible with Zardari in the presidency.

All these developments appear to be part of a well-orchestrated and well-planned conspiracy to force the PPP-led coalition government to resign before time and hand over power to a set of  ‘yet-to-be identified clean and honest’ people of ‘high integrity’.  It is not yet clear who will decide who these are. Qadri? Or those who are pulling his strings from behind the scenes?

It all looks too surreal to those who have been closely following the political ups and downs of the last five years, especially these sudden turns and twists in what certainly looks like an artificial episode inserted hurriedly into a drama which is just about to end with a whimper.

I am not sure if the SC is part of any such conspiracy. Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry does not need to join a rabble rouser like Qadri to bring the government to a premature end. He already has the entire media and most of the political parties, including the PMLN, the Jamaat-i-Islami and the PTI, fully behind him in his campaign to keep the executive from overshooting its constitutional mandate. The Army is too busy thwarting the internal and external threats to the country to be part of the Minhajul Quran chief’s shenanigans.

Any disruption in the ongoing democratic process because of Qadri’s antics will help MQM avert the process of re-verification of the voters list in Karachi as well as re-delimitation in the same city. The PTI will miss the chance of a lifetime to win a good number of seats in parliament.

The PML-N will miss its turn to govern. The PPP will cry foul and regain all the ground it has lost because of the incumbency factor, bad governance and lax administration.  And Qadri will be either arrested or will return to Canada.


Published in The Express Tribune, January 16^th, 2013.