Analysis: Will Qadri’s hurricane really ‘hit’ Islamabad?

Though not four or even a million, Qadri did succeed in getting a presentable crowd of around a 100,000.

Dr Allama Tahirul Qadri may have taken inspiration from the strong four-day sit-in in Quetta, resulting in the imposition of governor’s rule in Balochistan, but then Islamabad is not Quetta.

Neither is D-Chowk the Alamdar Road — where he and his “thousands of highly motivated” supporters would be allowed to turn it into Tahrir Square.

Therefore, his dream of transforming the D-Dhowk into Tahrir Square failed to get any positive response from the government despite some last-minute contact with PML-Q leader Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain.

His sudden return in the political arena, after a lapse of almost eight years since his resignation from the National Assembly seat in 2004, poses grave questions.

Though not the promised four million or even a million, Qadri did succeed in getting a presentable crowd of around a 100,000.

What remains to be seen now is for how long would the Qadri supporters be allowed to lay siege to the capital — he claims they will not turn away from Islamabad unless his seven-point charter of demands is accepted.

However, there is no real sign of acceptance of his demands including the dissolution of the Election Commission of Pakistan, formation of a caretaker government of national consensus with the approval of the army and judiciary, accountability and qualification of only those candidates who fulfil the requirement of Article 62 and 63.

And for the last three days, the federal capital is practically under siege — an undeclared curfew-like situation is being witnessed in the “red zone” with people and diplomats alike wondering what’s next?

With tons of fruits, bottled water, gas cylinders, dry fruits and juices in bullet-proof containers with all facilities of an expansive room, Qadri has succeeded in displaying a proper show — but the government so far remains unmoved.

“If Chairman Mao’s long march can take weeks and months, this march will also not end unless our charter of demands is accepted and implemented,” he declared before leaving Lahore.



What he perhaps forgot is the spirit and commitment with which Mao led his march and went shoulder-to-shoulder with his people.

Civilian or non-civilian authorities cannot arrange long sit-ins at the capital. And Dr Qadri knows that.

Unless there are “forces” behind him, there is every likelihood that it would end without achieving the goal.

Sheikh Rasheed Ahmad, who supports Qadri’s cause, hinted towards a “deadlock.”

“I can’t give you details of what Qadri Sahab told me but I don’t see any agreement or breakthrough,” he told me.

Except the MQM, which provided moral support but did not participate in the “Democracy March”, only Sheikh Rasheed’s party lent political support to him.



Though Qadri’s inner core hinted at a long stay in Islamabad, if the government fails to accept his demands, he will require more political support from the MQM and possibly Imran Khan’s PTI.

PML-N, the Chaudhry brothers, JUI-F, and the judiciary are in no mood to put their weight behind Qadri for a variety of reasons.

So the “million-man” march perhaps appears to be heading towards a no-win situation for Qadri — unless something dramatic happens.

If certain “forces” want to use him to pressurise mainstream political leaders, who could win the next elections, they need to do lot more.

They need to ensure that the Constitutional Avenue transforms into a real Tahrir Square — and that’s a hurricane of a task.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 15^th, 2013.