Gas pipeline prospects
Neither Iran nor Pakistan are completely reliable when it comes to making pledges, Iran being hampered by internal political bickering and Pakistan rendered helpless by internal disorder and lawlessness, especially in the region that the pipeline would pass through. To begin with, India was part of the deal for Iranian gas: in fact, Iran was aiming to sell to the biggest buyer in South Asia, not so much Pakistan. India did not have a very good record of dealing with the ever-changing policies in Tehran but it has discovered that its alternative, the Turkmen-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline (TAPI), backed by America, is equally uncertain.
Therefore, in May 2010, New Delhi approached Tehran to resume talks but reiterated its issues with Pakistan, demanding safeguards within the contract to ensure the gas reached India. In 2011, Iran’s nuclear activities triggered a fresh round of sanctions but India and Pakistan have showed no signs of backing down. There is another aspect to the pipeline politics that is worth looking at: Pakistan has helped bring in China as the big buyer that Iran needs at the other end of the pipeline. After hitting Pakistan along the Mekran coast, the pipeline will go northwards and into Chinese Xinjiang. China may be wary of offending its largest trading partner America by coming out openly as a financier of IP but it can help in many other ways. In the end, India and China may both want a share of the Iranian gas; and that may have softened some opposition in Tehran to the entire project.
Sanctions scare states most able to dish out money and technology. China has stayed away; Russia came in tentatively, then backed off when a ‘realist’ faction in Moscow reassessed the damage Russia will have to sustain from sanctions imposed jointly by the EU and America. Pakistan has already been threatened with sanctions by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Some articles of the India-American nuclear agreement mention conditionalities attached to India’s relationship with Iran but India is far better placed than China and Russia to resist the pressure, go along with Pakistan and get the gas from Iran. Both Pakistan and India, in dire need of energy together with Bangladesh, are increasingly sceptical of ever getting the America-backed TAPI pipeline.
If TAPI is at risk from disorder from the two transit states — Afghanistan and Pakistan — IP is threatened by Pakistan’s fast-eroding internal sovereignty. The pipeline project has already been shifted to the Mekran coast in Balochistan from Khuzdar where no one is safe after journalists have been killed and police officials have been forced to desert. It is almost certain that along the Mekran coast, too, the pipeline will come under attack from Baloch insurgents whose most virulent variety, in fact, comes from the southern part of the province. Over the years, they have developed expertise in blowing up gas pipelines. How Pakistan will react to sanctions by the US and the EU is uncertain as is the response from China after they are imposed.
Yet, Pakistan must remain steadfast in getting the Iranian gas. It will change the way Iran thinks about the region to its eastward side after it becomes more engaged economically with South Asia. On the other hand, this gas will be a factor of integration of the economies of South Asia, destined to seek piped energy from Iran and Central Asia. It is curious that the big-seller Iran and the big-buyer India are both worried about the capacity of Pakistan to build the pipeline and protect it against terrorist attacks after it has been built.
Published in The Express Tribune, November 27th, 2012.
COMMENTS (12)
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@mahakaalchakra:
The problem lies, clearly, with Pakistan: because of the region's geography, if indeed a gas pipeline is laid down through land, Pakistan would get involved but the strategic thinking in India is that this is undesirable, given Pakistan's instability and its long history of jealousy, dichotomy and conflict, marred by terrorism and religious extremism, as far as India is concerned. India's thinking is also motivated by the fact that things in Pakistan are unlikely to change; it could only get worse because the present gallery of leaders, including the mullahs and military, can hardly take the country out of its deep-rooted crisis. In short, Pakistan will be the ultimate loser because not only would it be denied the gas which it needs even more desperately than India to revive its bankrupt economy but also it will not earn any revenue that would be accrued to it from the gas transported through its soil to India. It's a zero sum game and not a win-win, particularly, for Pakistan whose past will come to haunt its present and future. Let us hope that the situation improves in Pakistan, but this is highly unlikely, according to the strategic pundits in the USA and India who closely monitor the situation in South Asia. Both India and Iran, despite U.S. objections, can maintain a low level of supply starting with a pipelines laid under the sea; India has the technical expertise to design and construct such an underwater link. And this can all be done if India takes the USA into confidence at an early stage, considering there is appreciation in Washington for India's energy needs and both are strategic partners. A thriving Indian economy is also, after all, in America's interest.
@realist: KHODAI KHODAI...What will Pak deepstate do now as their dream of holding the jugular vein of India (gas supply) has fallen flat?
@ Hashmi,
...Examples are Pakistan collaborating with China with whose help it expects to outclass India, lack of a will in Pakistan to solve its long-standing disputes with India like Kashmir, water, etc, even stupid ones like Siachin where both countries are losing precious lives and large amounts of money for no good reason, Afghanistan not recognising the Durand line imposed by the British, claiming part of Pakistani territory as its own, because of which it opposes the fencing of Pakistan-Afghanistan border and of course Pakistan’s continued interference in Afghanistan since 1974, way before USSR entered Afghanistan...
This fits more for Pakistan.
http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2010-06-08/india/283039281ipi-pipeline-pakistan-and-iran-deep-sea-pipeline
India, Iran discuss underwater gas line bypassing Pak Jun 8, 2010, 04.08am IST
NEW DELHI: The prospect may not have sounded feasible initially, but India is now coming round to the idea of having an underwater gas pipeline with Iran which would allow it to bypass Pakistan.
This certainly is well say or analyzed Article, jist is that this Pipe Line shall remain a dream as long US-Iran relationship are tense, no matter what we say say or write it is US dictation which prevails.
@gp65:
After unsuccessfully trying to drag China/Russia, pakistan is now trying to drag India in.
Editor: India was in talk with Iran in 2010 for a undersea pipeline completely bypassing pakistan.
The editorial is the most sensible and comprehensive write-up I have seen on the subject.
I think the major problem is that some of the states in the region: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, China, India and Russia see each other as rivals and not as neighbours for whom the cooperation with each other should have come as something natural, for their common good of course. Examples are India collaborating with United States with whose help it expects to outclass China, lack of a will in India to solve its long-standing disputes with Pakistan like Kashmir, water, etc, even stupid ones like Siachin where both countries are losing precious lives and large amounts of money for no good reason, Afghanistan not recognising the Durand line, claiming part of Pakistani territory as its own, because of which it opposes the fencing of Pakistan-Afghanistan border and of course Pakistan's earlier interference in Afghanistan.
If the countries in the region cooperate with each other, they can sure form a large and powerful block which could stand up to the United States and other blocks. In any case the United States is the most immoral state on earth which imposes sanctions on Iran which commits no atrocities on its neighbours as compared to Israel, the favourite of United States, which is ruthless with its neighbours, and occupies their land, while scuttling all peace initiatives. Moreover, American plans are sure to create more frictions and wars, and not build peace, in the region.
Also, since the energy needs of the countries mentioned above are real, they should no be expected to give up a definite solution in the form of Iran pipeline, relying instead on the vague TAPI, just because the US is bitterly opposed to Iran and that, too, not on sound grounds. The US defies the whole world in its unjust, unreasonable and unqualified support for Israel and there is no reason why we should follow American commands and in the process let our economies be ruined. In any case, the US has given exemption from sanctions to some countries and we can claim the same, especially when we also have bargaining chips.
KarachiTop leadership in both the countries don't know what type of hammers working in their ministries to stop or destroy this pipeline.Same is being done to TAPI by others.
The sanctions are put in by US and EU countries, which together form aroun 50-60% of the Global economy. They state that any organisation which deals with Iran will not be allowed to deal with American and EU organisation.
Nobody is foolish enough to give money to build this pipeline, not even China.
India can convince the US, as can use the excuse of pleasing Iran to get into Afghanistan. But, against as the article says Pakistan's internal stability is in doubt. You never know what will happen in Pakistan. When things were going well, Kargil came, then the Dictatorship. Who knows what power will come to power in Pakistan in just few months.
A country that pleads helplessness about attacks by its 'non state actors' can make no sovereign guarantees on safety of investments. Thus it'll be a mistake to trust any security pledges made by Pakistan.
The first order of business should be for Pakistan to show it is indeed capable of enforcing its laws within it's territory. Till then all talks of gas pipelinevwill be futile.
"Some articles of the India-American nuclear agreement mention conditionalities attached to India’s relationship with Iran but India is far better placed than China and Russia to resist the pressure, go along with Pakistan and get the gas from Iran."
The pipeline used to be called IPI pipeline. (Iran Pakistan India pipeline). Now it is called IP pipeline. There is a reason. India is no longer part of the project. This happened well before the threat of sanctions because: 1) increased security problems in Balochistan with no guarantees forthcoming from Pakistan regarding security of pipelines (which India was supposed to invest in). 2) Failure to reach and agreement on transit fees with Pakistan
The problem with getting the $1 billion funding would be a non-issue if India was a part of the project but it isn't. Where is ET getting the information that India is stall part of this project?
You haven't performed an economic analysis - haven't decided the pipeline route - don't have the money/financing nor the technical expertise to build the pipeline - can't secure the pipeline from militants - and to top it off Iran really wants to sell gas to India and Pakistan is a necessary evil. Further - you don't have the money to pay the gas supply and it's likely that anyone associated with this pipeline is going to be the recipient of sanctions by both the USA and the EU. It's no wonder the IP gets a lot of talk but no action. Akin to Thar Coal - your not going to resolve your energy problems until you stand back and look realistically at your options.