Analysis: A ceasefire that is no ceasefire

The 9-day long Israeli attack on Gaza has now been capped with a ceasefire of sorts. However, thousands of Israeli troops are still amassed on the borders, ready for another land invasion anytime.

Naval and air-force capabilities are still fully mobilised. On ground, war planes pounding what Israeli military calls “terror targets” numbering well over a hundred have left a trail of death and destruction.

The besieged residents of Gaza have suffered enormously. Thousands have moved to secure areas, even if there is no such place in a small strip that Gaza is.

Families have been blown to pieces; homes have been smothered to the ground, infrastructure pulverised. A growing stream of badly injured and near-dead war victims have choked limited medical facilities. Funeral prayers are a common sight. In less than two weeks, there have been 130.

Yet even after this ceasefire, there is little evidence to suggest that the Palestinians are really off the death hook. The ceasefire is fragile and has come at a heavy cost.

The Islamic world – a chronic but delicious misnomer has been again shown to be ineffectual and weak.  The Israelis have taken advantage of a precarious regional situation. Syria is battered. Iraq is ruined. Qatar, Jordan and Bahrain are struggling to maintain internal stability. Traditional players like Saudi Arabia have hedged their diplomatic bets because of their rivalry with Iran, a country that has cut a swath of its own influence in the Palestinian territory through its support of Hamas, the Gaza rulers.

A non-Arab actor like Turkey could have had an immediate impact, but Ankara’s troubled relationship with Israel has hindered that prospect. The rest of the world, mostly European countries, do not want to take a stand against Israel too much since most of them regard Hamas a terrorist organisation, and totally buy Israel’s claim that this attack has been in self-defense and for survival. For nine days, Palestinians were left to be taken out like sitting ducks as a slow-motion diplomatic dance continued to unfold on the fractured floor of regional rivalries. That is a pattern that can be repeated anytime in the future.

Who can make a difference and solidify this halt in hostilities into a durable peace regime? Obviously, Washington. But it won’t. Because Barack Obama can’t. The pro-Israeli lobbies are too well entrenched for a black president with a Muslim middle name to make productive maneuvers as a neutral mediator.

At any rate, his second term has barely begun and the sex scandal involving top generals is still the dominant concern – apart from, of course, joblessness and the declining economic weight of a struggling superpower.

The other hope is a non-starter that the combined frustration and influence of the Muslim world over this outrage of the powerful against the weak would force a long-term Israeli restraint.

Sad as it may be, the reality is that Gaza attacks have continued as long as Israel wanted them to continue. These have ceased when Israel has the satisfaction of having done enough damage to Hamas and having killed enough civilians to feel secure for a few more months. Only then has there been some diplomatic headway. Like before, even now the Palestinians are on their own, abandoned to cruel global and regional politics, and permanently exposed to Israeli fire.

(Read: The Israeli winter)

Published in The Express Tribune, November 23^rd, 2012.