The military is now pragmatic and handles the relationship as transactional, which in Pakistan’s lexicon is an unworthy way of relating between two parties. It wants the US to understand that in any endgame scenario in Afghanistan, it would be a folly to ignore Pakistan’s interest. This kind of approach is not necessarily a promising way of looking at the future of Pakistan-US relations because of the element of dare contained in it. A more realistic formulation would have been better suited to the one adopted now: Pakistan has some strong cards in its capacity to spoil the endgame unless it is allowed a significant share in the power map of post-withdrawal Afghanistan. Needless to say, the US and its allies were not happy about the cards played by Pakistan even when the Taliban ruled Afghanistan.
Analysts say that the US will play tough this time around, using drones more effectively and retaining some special force in Afghanistan to prevent a repeat of 1998, when the Northern Alliance was annihilated by the Taliban and al Qaeda was given a free hand in planning a terrorist assault on the US. Some say that since, after the withdrawal, the US will need Pakistan less than Pakistan will need the US, this toughness will be a realistic policy orientation. No doubt, Pakistan will need US help when it comes to rescuing its economy from its nosedive pattern under the savage treatment meted out to it by the Taliban and their affiliated groups. Multilateral institutions that lend to Pakistan for its development projects and balance of payments will act only after receiving approval from the US and its allies. And Pakistan has to pay back the old loans with interest, the total amounting to more than the dollars it has in the kitty.
Any realistic assessment of the situation in Pakistan will recommend cautious trimming of the intensity with which America is hated. An aggressive foreign policy on the part of the weak state, dogged by internal security problems, will be difficult to roll back. This happened repeatedly in 2011 and 2012, when Pakistan tried to punish America but had to retreat in each case of display of ‘honour’. Such action brings about the psychological syndrome of self-hatred. The Pakistani media is overloaded with this dangerous trend of hating the US while having to play ball with it. No one outside Pakistan advises it to do what it is doing, not even the Chinese, who normally stand by Pakistan. The slogan ‘it is not our war’ has hurt our interests in the region. It should not have been allowed to spread as a national expression, especially as the military realises that what it faces in Swat, Bajaur, Mohmand Agency, South and North Waziristan is very much Pakistan’s war.
Pakistan has to change its posture, just as it wants the US to change policy in favour of its interest. Its main weakness is a lack of control of the strategic assets that it plans to use as an instrument of its Afghan policy. Its internal weakness in the face of the Taliban — to whose thinking the country submits in many alarming ways — undermines its external posture. Pakistan, it is now clear, cannot fight the terrorists, to whom it is steadily losing more and more cities, without international help. It is time to realign Pakistan with the rest of the world, especially those states that are critical to the survival of its economy.
Published in The Express Tribune, November 11th, 2012.
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@BlackJack: I do not think US needs to save face. A war is won or lost depending on whether the goals for which it was fought were achieved. US never wanted to rule over Afghanistan so pullng troops out is by no means a loss. They wanted to kill OBL and they have. They wanted t ensure that key Al Qaeda leaders are killed and they have accomplished that goal. They wanted to keep their own homeland safe by reducing safe havens for terrorist and they have accomplished that. No matter what the dispensation in Afghanistan post 2014, it will not be a safe haven that it was for terrorists. There is ANA that will balance them out. Yes there was a secondary goal to do nation building in Afghanistan if Afghan Taliban are some part of the Afghan government and to an extent they have succeeded. WOmen CAN once again go to school. Non-Muslims do not have to pin a star on themselves (like jews in Nazi Germany) - an idea that the Taliban were seeing to implement and even if the Afghan Taliban are a part of the post 2014 dispensation, they will not be the absolute brutal rulers of all they survey and
Obama knows who runs Pakistan better than most Pakistani citizens do. He was the one who made sure that the Kerry/Lugar bill was passed, though Hussain Haqqani took the chop. He has a fair idea why it took years to discover Osama Bin Laden and who protected him too. He has a fair idea which force is fanning anti Americanism too. I do not believe Obama can be taken for a ride easily, if push comes to shove he knows what he has to do.
America is not interested in fixing the world or lowering discord in the region; they just want a face-saving exit from Afghanistan, and do not want their 10+ years and billions of dollars spent on this war to go to waste soon after the troops have withdrawn - again it has more to do with their image and a sunk-cost fallacy than any great love for Afghanistan. If Pakistan had played along right from the start, the next regime in Afghanistan would have been increasingly dependent on it, and the US would have been grateful for the support; instead it played the field and allowed India to become a stakeholder in this discussion. It gave sanctuary to militant groups and pampered its own home-grown jihadis who have now run amok. When you retrace your steps, you will realize that every single issue being faced is a result of your short-sightedness and inability to accept your place in the world. Pakistan needs to understand that its interests, even today, lie in ensuring that the scourge of Taliban leave their territory before the US exit; after 2014, Talibanization can only pick up steam.
Pakistan, it is now clear, cannot fight the terrorists, to whom it is steadily losing more and more cities, without international help. It is time to realign Pakistan with the rest of the world, especially those states that are critical to the survival of its economy. Really a balanced unbiased editorial reflecting the mood of the educated.
"It is time to realign Pakistan with the rest of the world, especially those states that are critical to the survival of its economy." That is only US and India critical to Pak economoy. To align with them , according to Pakistan, will be against "National interest", "Idealogy of Pakistan" and against sharia and what not. How will Pak achieve this then.
It wants the US to understand that in any endgame scenario in Afghanistan, it would be a folly to ignore Pakistan’s interest. A typical entitlement and a contempt for people of Afghanistan mindset of the elite of Pakistan.
Would the US be truthful in its approach to honestly support PAKISTAN even after PAKISTAN changes its classic policy about harbouring TALIBAN? The problem is more with the US policy to enforce PAKISTAN to carryout its orders for their sole interests which overlooks PAKISTANS interests this is where PAKISTANIS show desperation for the US & when it runs to protect its own hold in the region then US gets angry & trys all possible tricks to force PAKISTAN to subdue US does not hesitate to invade borders, spread militancy, support anti state eliments. PAKISTAN also will not accept INDIAN bossing arround in the region no matter what. US must correct its course regarding PAKISTAN & respect its borders stop killing civilians with drones & show clear honesty with PAKISTAN.