Turkey’s growing involvement in Syria

There is little enthusiasm within Turkey for an armed conflict with Syria, despite its stated positions.

Syria’s civil war is becoming increasingly brutal, with civilians being its primary victims. Though the rebels have scored notable successes, the Bashar al-Assad regime shows no sign of unravelling. However, it is Turkey’s growing involvement that is arousing concern in the region and beyond. Parliament’s approval of a resolution, extending cross-border military action against its neighbour for another year, represents a major step up the escalation ladder, permitting a bolder approach that could enable the rebels to seize a safe haven to establish a provisional government. This would sharpen the ideological divide in the region, reducing the possibility of a negotiated end to the civil war and worse, make the post-Bashar dispensation even more complicated.

In fact, evidence of a more muscular approach was evident when the Turkish Air Force forced down a passenger plane on suspicion that it may be carrying weapons for the Syrian regime. Not surprisingly, Nato came out in support of the Turkish action, with Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen warning that the organisation “has all the necessary plans in place to protect and defend Turkey”. Israel, too, expressed solidarity. President Abdullah Gul’s warning of a “worst-case scenario”, prompted some to wonder if Turkey was considering the “Cyprus Option”.

There is, however, little enthusiasm in the country for an armed conflict with a neighbour with which Turkey has centuries of intimate ties. This may explain why this ‘hard power’ strategy was combined with a ‘soft power’ approach, with Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu pointing to his Syrian counterpart as a “man of reason and conscience”, who could be a future leader of his country.

While Turkey’s strong espousal of the Syrian opposition has earned Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan kudos from many states, there is evidence of simmering disquiet at home. Undoubtedly, Prime Minister Erdogan is a remarkable leader, who has proven himself to be a person of resolve and vision, ensuring both political stability and remarkable economic growth. Opponents are, however, now accusing him of an authoritarian streak; a fear strengthened by proposed constitutional changes that would create a powerful presidency that he may assume. But of greater concern is Turkey being dragged into the Syrian quagmire with all its many uncertainties.

Developments in Syria are having a dramatic impact on an already volatile region. Turkey’s much vaunted “zero problems with neighbours” policy is in tatters, with hostility now the dominant theme in relations with two important neighbours. Its increasing involvement in Kurdish politics in neighbouring Syria and Iraq is stirring up new passions. There are other countries such as Iraq and Egypt that fear the fallout from a protracted civil war, which would not only destroy Syria’s delicate ethnic and sectarian balance but also suck in foreign powers in a widening conflict. Russia and China are also increasingly concerned with the unbridled projection of American influence through the use of concepts such as “Responsibility to Protect” — the so called R2P that was used to engineer Colonel Muammar Gaddafi’s ouster. The Obama Administration, which had earlier embraced this approach, is hesitant to have the US involved in another war in a Muslim country, even though Bashar al-Assad’s departure would severely reduce Iran’s influence in the region and dry up aid to Hezbollah and Hamas. However, it would leave Syria destabilised, while exacerbating sectarian strife in Lebanon and Iraq. US Ambassador Chris Stevens’ death in Benghazi, possibly at the hands of terrorists, has coincided with reports of increased presence of al Qaeda affiliated groups in Syria’s civil war, reinforcing US reticence.

These sentiments are giving rise to growing voices in Turkey that are cautioning against further stoking a military conflict in Syria and fighting it to the finish. Instead, establishing civilian sanctuaries followed by renewed UN efforts to promote a peace conference may be the only alternative to a civil war. Continuing stalemate and wider conflagration would not leave any country, and certainly not Turkey, unaffected.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 17^th, 2012.