A break for Obama

Democrats see Ryan’s nomination as an opportunity to bring the issue of governance to centre stage.

The US presidential election is still about 70 days away, but with the Republicans gathered in Tampa for the convention to anoint Mitt Romney as their candidate, the race has acquired ideological tension and personal acerbity, particularly after Paul Ryan’s selection as the running mate.

Paul Ryan’s selection has intrigued many but it should be recalled that President Barack Obama’s victory four years ago was a watershed in American political development. Thanks to his skill and intelligence in ‘packaging’ himself as a harbinger of ‘change’, Obama had generated huge excitement, especially among the youth and minorities. But it also upset many whites, particularly the devout ‘Christians’, who felt ‘humiliated’ that a person of mixed ethnic and cultural background should have captured the nation’s leadership.

Mitt Romney’s nomination was more the result of lacklustre performance by his rivals than any enthusiasm for him in the party’s rank and file. This may explain Paul Ryan’s choice as his running mate. This young, articulate and combative Congressman has headed the House Budget Committee where much of the battle over the economy has been fought over the last two years. Though vice presidential candidates matter little in presidential races, given Romney’s moderate policies and his Mormon faith — which continues to cause misgivings to conservatives — Paul Ryan’s nomination could have a major impact on the election, either galvanising the evangelicals or upsetting the moderates.

It may, therefore, be the first time that the vice presidential candidate’s political philosophy may come to define the tone and tenor of the presidential race. Given Ryan’s leadership on budgetary issues, including the conservative campaign to reorder the nation’s tax and spending priorities for the 21^st century, he has become a darling for the right. As for the moderates, he is an anathema, since their fear is that his efforts to reduce the role of government could undo many of the country’s social safety nets and convert Medicare into a capped voucher programme. The nation’s income tax system too, which was crafted by both Republican and Democratic administrations, would also undergo a radical change ensuring massive distribution so as to favour the rich, while hurting the poor. Ryan has also been an ardent foe of abortion rights, same-sex marriage and government funding for family planning, while championing the right of gun owners.

Foreign policy plays only a minimal role in presidential elections with voters primarily interested in the economy, which is why both Romney and Ryan have said little on the subject, other than to reiterate their total support for Israel. In fact, Romney has chosen to ignore the party’s mainstream foreign policy experts and opt for people with a decidedly neoconservative bent of mind, who are viewed as unilateralists, with a missionary zeal to spread American values abroad, coupled with open admiration for Israel’s hard line leadership. Many of them are in the Bolton mold, contemptuous of the UN, disdainful of multilateral diplomacy and ardent supporters of America’s right to intervene whenever it advances American interest. His closest foreign policy adviser is Dan Senor, who was the spin doctor of Paul Bremer, the first administrator of post-occupation Iraq. A Romney presidency would be no joy to those looking for a more peaceful world.

The race remains close and is likely to become tighter with the passage of time. The president, who has presided over an economy that has failed to pick up, is counting on mistakes and failings of his rival rather than on presenting new initiatives. The Democrats, therefore, see Ryan’s nomination as an opportunity to bring the issue of governance to centre stage of the debate. President Obama need no longer be confined to defending his record but can turn the election into a referendum on the conservative vision. He can go back to being the moderate, caring national leader protecting the middle class, which is why Ryan’s presence on the ticket may well be a welcome break for President Obama in an increasingly nasty race.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 29^th, 2012.