Taliban, Pakistan and the United States

For the moment Washington under President Donald Trump is keeping the Taliban regime operating out of Kabul at a distance. The way Trump is treating the Taliban government reminds analysts of the way the United States deal with Vietnam when it withdrew from that country following the takeover of Saigon, the capital of the south, by the Communists who advanced from Hanoi, the capital of the north. Could Washington live with the Taliban in Kabul? The Washington Post wrote an editorial on the subject under the title, "Even the Taliban shouldn't be a permanent enemy". Opinion such as these in influential newspapers could change the way the American government is approaching the world.

There are reasons for keeping some distance between Washington and Kabul largely because the Taliban's governance record in several areas is abysmal. The newspaper listed the reasons: "Their treatment of women and girls remains abhorrent. Girls and women are prohibited from pursuing an education beyond primary school and banned from most jobs. Former Afghan government officials and members of the U.S.-trained security forces continued to be hunted and killed."

There are good reasons for putting a lot of pressure on the government currently operating out of Kabul. Some of what the Taliban are doing in terms of governance was predicted to me in a long conversation I had in 2020 at a dinner in a royal palace in Kabul with Ashraf Ghani who had been elected twice the president of Afghanistan. He had worked with me at the World Bank when, as Vice President, I was managing the institution's work in Latin America and the Caribbean. There were some problems in three countries in the north-central part of the large region that needed to be resolved. I sent Ghani over to the areas in trouble and he developed a plan of action that could bring together the countries in conflict. I liked the plan and went over and met with the three presidents who agreed to implement it, provided the World Bank provided some financial assistance which it did. In our dinner conversation in Kabul, Ghani suggested that Afghanistan and Pakistan could work together and adopt the approach the Latin American nations that had long-term conflict were able to deal with. Some of what the two countries could do would be to develop the shared tribal areas.

The newspaper looking at the record of the United States' operations in the world found good reason for engaging with Kabul. "As with Vietnam and other countries which the United States has profound differences, engagement has often proved more effective than isolation, particularly in the areas of common interest," wrote The Washington Post in the above cited editorial.

Terrorism is one area where the payoff for working with Kabul would be impressive keeping in view how that would help neighbouring Pakistan. Both Washington and Islamabad want Kabul's help in bringing under control the terrorist group that goes under the name of Islamic State-Khorasan. Usually referred to as ISIS-K, it has carried out some impressive operations such as a concert siege in Moscow in 2024 that left more than 140 people dead. It has used sophisticated tools to recruit people in Europe. It is targeting the areas in Europe in which Muslim populations are not fully integrated with the main population. Chechnya in Russia's south is a good example. The ISIS-K has also moved into the Muslim republics that border China and Russia.

China and Pakistan have already held talks with Afghanistan about fighting terrorism. China is interested in securing its 47-mile border with Afghanistan's Wakhan Corridor to prevent infiltration by Uighur militants who share ethnicity with the people who live in the neighbouring Xinjiang region. Although it has very close relations with China, Pakistan looks with favour at the Uighur population. The main reason is that they are fellow Muslims. The under-development China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has provided the Uighurs access to the sea and that would bring the world outside to help modernise governance in the areas that remain backward.

The Taliban regime in Kabul remains isolated. Russia is the only country to establish diplomatic relations with Afghanistan but others, including China, Iran, Qatar and the UAE, have named ambassadors to Kabul. A dozen other countries have established missions led by lower-level diplomats. Those that have adopted this low-key approach include India, Pakistan, Turkey and the European Union. Some UN agencies are also active in Afghanistan. Giving access to Kabul to international bodies would bring in humanitarian assistance to save the country from a health disaster. More than half the Afghan population needs urgent help with provision of food and medicines. The United States is sitting on billions of dollars in frozen funds of the Afghanistan central bank, crippling country's banking system. Without a functioning banking system, foreign investment is unlikely to flow into the country. That involvement is needed to tap some of the riches that lied deep under the ground in Afghanistan.

The world recognises that Afghanistan is sitting on top of rich mineral resources. The deposits contain some essential elements that are vital components used for the manufacture of several valuable products such electric vehicles, aircraft, missiles, medical equipment, household appliances and other high-value products. The value of the deposits in Afghanistan was estimated by the United States Pentagon when it was active in the country. It was believed to run into trillions of dollars. The belt that has these minerals begins in Kazakhstan, runs through Afghanistan and ends in the tribal regions of Pakistan. Up until now China has had a monopolistic hold in the production for industrial use of the precious minerals that are found in rare earth. The movements of these minerals and the products that are vital in their manufacture have become part of the trade war that is now being waged by President Donald Trump with China. Finding alternative sources of supply has become an important objective of Trump's approach to the world outside his country's borders.

The recent warming of relations between Washington and Islamabad is in part because of the American interest in rare earth minerals in which China currently has a monopoly and is preventing America from obtaining them. There are stories appearing in the media in both Pakistan and the West that suggest that the United States is preparing to invest millions of dollars to tap the resources that lie deep under the ground in Balochistan as well as in the northeastern areas in Gilgit and Baltistan.