New front against Pakistan

When the Afghan Taliban returned to power in August 2021, it was a blow to India and a great strategic victory for Pakistan. It was a setback for India because its years of investment in the administrations of Karzai and Ghani went down the drain, as the new rulers in Kabul were perceived as pro-Pakistan and even Rawalpindi's proxy. Pakistan and India have competed for gaining a foothold in Afghanistan for decades. For Pakistan, denying India space in Afghanistan helps avoid a two-front situation - threats both from the eastern and western sides. For India, any pro-Pakistan setup in Afghanistan could embolden Islamabad's strategic options. Hence, Afghanistan's relationship with India and Pakistan will always carry regional implications.

Against this backdrop, the ongoing visit of Afghan Interim Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi is an extraordinary development. It is significant since this marks the first visit by any top Afghan Taliban functionary to New Delhi. India may have a history of friendly ties with Afghanistan, but it never engaged with the Taliban until now. That is why Muttaqi's visit is being viewed with keen interest in Pakistan and beyond. This was unimaginable when the Taliban took control of Kabul. No one would have thought that four years later, the Taliban's relationship with Islamabad would hit a roadblock while its foreign minister would embark on a weeklong trip to New Delhi.

In principle, every country has the sovereign right to pursue relations based on its own interests, so one cannot question Muttaqi's visit to New Delhi. But when it comes to Afghanistan and its outreach to India, it is not straightforward diplomacy given the geostrategic sensitivities. It was a bold and risky decision on the part of the Taliban government to dispatch its top diplomat to India at this stage. Pakistan and India are still trading blame following their four-day armed conflict in May. The Indian military leadership recently escalated the rhetoric, with the Indian army chief threatening to wipe Pakistan off the world map. This is staggering, given that no Indian army chief before has made such a blistering remark. Similarly, the Indian political leadership is ratcheting up the ante.

The Taliban government is certainly mindful of these developments, yet Muttaqi opted to visit India - perhaps sending a signal to Pakistan that Kabul is ready to put its ties with Islamabad at stake. During talks between Muttaqi and S Jaishankar, the Indian Foreign Minister, there were some significant takeaways. First, India decided to upgrade its diplomatic ties by restoring its mission's status to a full-fledged embassy. Remember, New Delhi shut its embassy in Kabul after the Taliban returned to power in August 2021, maintaining only a technical mission. This is a significant shift in India's strategic calculus as it embraces the Taliban. The Indian foreign minister particularly appreciated the Taliban's swift condemnation of the Pahalgam attack.

Another noteworthy move was India's offer to help the Taliban manage Afghanistan's water resources. This will not go unnoticed in Islamabad because India has already suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, and by offering technical assistance to the Taliban in managing water resources, New Delhi appears keen to further squeeze Pakistan's water options. For India, engaging the Taliban at a time when Afghanistan's ties with Pakistan are at their lowest is a move aimed at making inroads in Kabul and further upsetting Islamabad.

The Afghan Taliban, meanwhile, understand Pakistan's sensitivities regarding India, and hence Muttaqi's visit was not without a clear strategic objective. As Pakistan builds pressure on Kabul to crack down on TTP and other militant groups, the Taliban may see a reset in ties with India as a useful counterbalance. But this strategy by the Taliban is fraught with danger. The Taliban and India may inflict short-term discomfort on Pakistan, but Islamabad's counter-moves could make matters far worse for Kabul. Clearly, a new front has opened against Pakistan!