Following President Asif Ali Zardari’s invitation to Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to visit Pakistan, it is likely that the visit will take place in November 2012 barring any untoward incident which brings back the war hysteria between the two neighbouring states.
Mr Singh has defied an anti-Pakistan opposition in Lok Sabha to assert that he wants to remove interstate tensions with Pakistan. On the other hand, Pakistan has chosen to revisit its foreign policy paradigm that is India-centric, bringing it negative dividends.
The two sides have made public gestures to soften the bilateral hostility felt at the level of the common man. President Zardari has visited Ajmer Sharif in India and applied his usual ‘reconciliatory’ diplomacy to New Delhi while giving the go-ahead to its party to forge ahead on the question of opening free trade with India; India has accepted the Pakistani cricket team’s tour to India and has announced that it would not join the US in enhancing its presence in Afghanistan to the detriment of Pakistani interests.
The positive fallout of the visit will actually begin with trade-related agreements in September so that Mr Singh will look good while exploiting photo opportunities in Pakistan. The world will look on with bated breath because normalisation of Indo-Pak relations will bring down the temperatures of conflict in the region now focused on Afghanistan. While the world is in favour of the visit, the impediments are mostly at home: the extreme right-wing elements in India do not want it because of the continuing scandals relating to the 2008 Mumbai attacks; in Pakistan, jihadist organisations united under the banner of the Difa-e-Pakistan Council have warned India of reprisals in response to its Afghan policy.
This diplomacy will have to proceed against the current of public opinion. The Indian media is riled after Pakistan’s stubborn denial campaign following the revelations made by Abu Jundal, the Indian terrorist who was present in Karachi when the Mumbai attack was being planned; the Pakistani media is full of stories about the Taliban being funded by the US and aided by India in its bloody forays into Pakistan’s cities, killing innocent citizens. Earlier, Pakistan told India that it is interfering in Balochistan by aiding and abetting the Baloch separatists but without presenting to New Delhi any internationally credible proof of its allegations. A separate campaign has been unleashed in Pakistan about the ‘stealing’ of Pakistani waters from rivers by India building hundreds of dams in violation of a waters treaty.
If Pakistan and India are left to themselves, they will probably not be able to prevent more wars between each other. The outside world is featuring more and more in the current diplomacy by the two, mainly because any conflict between them threatens to escalate into a nuclear war. Both are dependent in varying degrees on the outside world; Pakistan in terms of aid which it needs to survive and India because it wants to expand its stature globally, which the old ‘stay at home’ doctrine will not deliver.
Out of the two, Pakistan is in dire straits. Unfortunately, this will make progress difficult because of the rise of suicidal ‘ghairat’ on the basis of the slogans popularised by politicians and the non-state actors aligned with al Qaeda. The opposition is presenting serried ranks to President Zardari’s initiative with the media playing its frog chorus. It is Pakistan that will have to change the domestic rules of the game set by the army and face the outside world more attuned to pragmatism and economic opportunism to stave off state collapse.
The future of Pakistan is threatened no longer by conflict on the eastern border but by the rapid unfolding of the ‘endgame’ of international military presence in Afghanistan on the western border. India and Pakistan need to coordinate policy in order to secure themselves against any hostile post-withdrawal developments there. For that, they need to normalise relations, move forward on the creation of pro-peace vested interests on both sides through free trade facilitating infrastructure connectivities in the region and adjacent regions like Central Asia.
Published in The Express Tribune, July 29th, 2012.
COMMENTS (24)
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@C. Nandkishore: in the same epics it said enduring criminal behaviour for any reason is a crime in itself, don't shoot your mouth think before you write
Pakistan should not allow Indian PM until he apologizes for killings of innocent Pakistanis in Samjhoota Express train.
@Enlightened: "Moreover, why should the Indian PM visit Pakistan where hatred is preached against Hindus(Indians) in text books curriculum ??" That is a naive question to ask of Pakistanis. Haven't you taken any lesson from his (and Sonia Ghandy's) government's stand that Lord Ram was a mythical figure and the whole Ramayana is pure mythology? ManMohan Singh is as anti-Hindu as his Christian mistress!
Einstein said "insanity is repeating the same thing again and again, expecting different results". India and Pakistan have been thru the charade of cricket diplomacy, talks etc. for long. What is needed is a different approach. Perhaps one where we keep our hands of each other for a long period of time, and see how things turn out.
@ C. Nandkishore: "Still the Hindu Lord Sri Kirshna went to Hastinapur to give peace a chance. Why can’t a human like Manmohan Singh try?"
Interesting. commentator's name Nandkishore means Krishna and Mohan in Man Mohn also means krishna. Which five villages this krishna (Mohan) is going to ask? I know of two for sure. One is Goh and another Nankana Sahib. Any guess for the remaining three?
Without dismantling the infrastructure of terrorism, chance of any kind of reconciliation is zilch.
Unless Pakistan takes some solid actions against the Mumbai perpatrators nothing is going to change. It is high time somebody more responsible in Pakistan shows the people like Hafeez Saeed where they should be now
Its not only some parties but most Indians cannot forget the ghastly 26/11 attack which eminated from across the border and it has been proved beyond any doubt that state too was involved in the same. Moreover, why should the Indian PM visit Pakistan where hatred is preached against Hindus(Indians) in text books curriculum ??
@ All Indians Read your epics. All humans were against it. Still the Hindu Lord Sri Kirshna went to Hastinapur to give peace a chance. Why can't a human like Manmohan Singh try? Dharmaraj was ready for just five villages to avoid the war.
@Mirza: "All wars between Pakistan and India were during the military rule. The only exception would be Kargil where Gen Mush had upstaged the PM NS."
Yes but Mirzaji 26/11 also happened during the civilian rule. Not just that there has been a complete unwillingness to bring the perpetrators to justice by this civilian government. Not just that, the hate speeches openly given by Hafeez Saeed in Pakistan's capital are like rubbing salt to our wounds. Also Musharraf had closed the tap on JeM. But during this civilian rule, JeM has once again started openly fund raising.
It may well be that the civilians are unable to control the deep state's strategic assets - but as far ordinary Indians are concerned, we are not seeing sincerity with regards to terrorism.
Actually most Indians, quite rightly, do hate their neighbour. If you are not aware of that already, you just need to skim through the pages of Indian newspapers like TOI to gauge the extent of that animosity. So, at the end of the day, Mr. Singh, as the elected representative of the largest democracy of the world, should not be expected to pander to pakis when doing so would be very very unpopular among his own countrymen.
Do you think Manmohan Singh cares about extreme right wing elements in India? No. It is the common people who can see that Pakistan is not serious about stopping terrorism - forget bringing the perpetrators of 26/11 to justice. When Hafiz Saeed goes around giving jihad calls for Kashmir in open public meetings in Islamabad, it is impossible to believe that Pakistan is serious about stopping terrorism.
Everyone wants peace but on Pakistan's side there are just words. The common man in India is not willing to move past 26/11 and that is the impediment for Manmohan Singh.
Once again an elected and progressive govt can decrease the tension between the two neighbors. All wars between Pakistan and India were during the military rule. The only exception would be Kargil where Gen Mush had upstaged the PM NS. The civil govt should do everything to promote the climate of good neighborhood and rein in the extremists who are against any friendly move toward India.
Last time when Mr Vaajpai visited, then Pakistan gave the Kargil . So this time on Mr ManMohan,s visit, what,s the new cook up?.can we expect another adventure?
Which Indian in his right mind would want to reconcile with terror tactics which is what Pakistan has been using against India , it is not just extrem right wing of Indian politics , none of them trust you, you cant expect India to accept your logic with a Pakistani gun to our head. As for post withdrawal of ISAF from Afghanistan effecting India we don't really care we know India will be targeted again by Pakistan it's assets. And your effort to equate india and Pakistan is downright silly
It is not just the right-wing elements in the country that do not want the Indian Prime Minister to visit Pakistan. At least 90 percent of Indians (according to polls by many organizations) think it is a bad idea. What does the Indian PM have to show in return for his visit? The well-meaning but gullible Mr. Singh, who is virtually seen as a lame-duck PM by the majority of Indians, wants to have the personal satisfaction of visiting his place of birth. Pakistanis should understand that India -- like the majority of civilized states -- abhors the killings of defenceless and innocent men, women and children by savages and butchers from your soil, inspired, encouraged and armed by your state agencies (despite the perennial denials even in the face of overwhelming evidence presented not just by India but also by the West, particularly the USA). Things will NEVER be the same again. There will NEVER be trust between the two countries. If you want history to judge you kindly -- and not as a nation of barbaric religious extremists -- then you have to bring the killers and masterminds of the Mumbai carnage and other terrorist acts to justice. The sooner you do the better. It will be sad if because of these few thugs whom you protect and hide, the many decent and law-abiding people are also judged as belonging to this same tribe of barbarians.
Sri Krishna's visit to Hastinapur to try and prevent Kurushetra?
@editor: " ... For that, they need to normalise relations, move forward on the creation of pro-peace vested interests on both sides through free trade facilitating infrastructure connectivities in the region and adjacent regions like Central Asia. ... "
When Muslims accept the fact that the "message for humanity" in Islam is the same as the message contained in non-Islamic religious and philosophical traditions, peace will dawn.
Liberal visas and trade, etc, may help, but now much; not as much as a secular mullah can.
............the extreme right-wing elements in India do not want it because of the continuing scandals relating to the 2008 Mumbai attacks ......
I disagree. It is not the extreme right wing but the common people on the street is extremely angry at Pakistan's treacherous double game. On the one hand you extend the hand of friendship and at the same time train terrorists to kill innocents is unacceptable. Pak authorities complain every now and then about Indian hand in Baluchistan but, as you mentioned, give the world no evidence, while India has living proof one after the other. We can keep on arguing with no end but realistically if you want lasting peace, start dealing with bad apples first and foremost.
"President Zardari has visited Ajmer Sharif in India" Last we heard about this visit is that the cheque he promised to the Dargah has not been received. " India and Pakistan need to coordinate policy in order to secure themselves against any hostile post-withdrawal developments there. " Let Pakistan worry for itself; India does not expect "any hostile post-withdrawal developments" except from Pakistan!