After much speculation and rumour-mongering, the National Assembly has chosen a new prime minister. The choice came as a surprise. Raja Pervez Ashraf was not known as the best of ministers; his record as a minister for water and power was not enviable. This is why a cross section of people have criticised the choice made by the PPP. Why would the party further ruin its image in the election year? Perhaps, Raja is easy to sacrifice. Having said that, the media histrionics of calling the new prime minister ‘Raja Rental’ is unfortunate. It undermines the rule of law as the NAB inquiry against the new prime minister is still underway.
The nomination of Makhdum Shahabuddin, the top choice for the prime ministerial slot, was scuttled by the issuance of a timely arrest warrant by the ANF. It seems that the judiciary has a clear stance on the PPP government and the security establishment is also not on the latter’s side.
How serious is this putsch? This is not the first time that such a situation has risen. At least four such moves were made in the recent past. At the time of the judges’ restoration in 2009, the country reached a tipping point and the last minute retreat by all those concerned allowed for the continuation of the system. Second, when the Kerry-Lugar legislation was passed in the US, the civilian government was curiously declared as the initiator and author of the bill and a massive propaganda campaign was launched against it. Gradually, the parties concerned retreated. In the aftermath of the court verdict on the National Reconciliation Ordinance, the continuation of the civilian government was in question but did not take place. Finally, the last major attempt was to implicate the president in the alleged unsigned memo appealing to the US for helping gain civilian control of governance. Pakistan’s ambassador to the US was sacrificed in reaching a settlement and the plan was abandoned.
Three fundamental realities have somehow helped the PPP sail through the past four years. Firstly, the opposition leader Nawaz Sharif has been unwilling to rock the system. He has understood that his own political fortunes rest on the continuation of the electoral process. Second, the effective check of the media and the courts against extraconstitutional options has reinforced the general lack of appetite for a military regime after a decade under Musharraf. Finally, the international and regional opinion is also clear: most of Pakistan’s friends, allies and neighbours have been keen on seeing civilian control of institutions and have supported its nascent democracy.
The disqualification of an elected PM, however, is the first serious blow to the PPP government. Its earlier complacency to complete its tenure and hold the elections under its control now stands challenged. Whether the current standoff with the unelected arms of the state will result in a truncation of the democratic process, as is feared by some, remains to be seen. The new prime minister is most likely to uphold the party’s position and not comply with the SC’s directives. This will lead to another ouster and perhaps will push the country towards a situation where elections and caretaker arrangements will be required.
Mian Nawaz Sharif would like an early election and is not likely to accept any other alternative. Hence, the creation of a caretakers’ government beyond three months is an unfeasible option. As for the outside world, it views Pakistan’s infighting as worrisome. Washington is getting increasingly jingoistic and even reasonable people there are asking for punitive action.
Pakistan’s civil-military power players need to appreciate the gravity of the situation. They must renegotiate the terms on which the new elections will be held. They should also not be tempted by a repeat of the 1990s when democracy was turned into a sham by repeated palace intrigues and dubious electoral arrangements. The country needs to move on.
The civilian government, at best, has six months before it’s time for election. Let the people judge the performance of the PPP and its allies and boot them out of power if they haven’t delivered. Neither the military, nor the judiciary can do this under the Constitution.
Published In The Express Tribune, June 24th, 2012.
COMMENTS (11)
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A number of civilian governments have been toppled by the establishment with the aid of the judiciary. Indeed, General Musharraf received powers almost equal to those of Louis XIV who had famously said, “I am the state.” Many of their Lordships who adorn the current benches willingly vetted Musharraf’s version of ‘I am the state’, giving him unbounded powers to amend the constitution. Wasn’t it a judicial NRO? Despite that, when his Lordship Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry uttered that magical word of defiance, ‘no’, to the dictator, a tumult of people — lawyers, political parties, media and civil society — flocked to the CJ’s caravan marching against the general, forgiving the judges’ inglorious past. They sacrificed their lives and properties and stood fast until the military ruler succumbed. Indeed, the PPP government also lost much public sympathy when it unwisely delayed the restoration of the deposed judges. And that gave Nawaz Sharif an easy entry into the popular domain after remaining on the fringes for a long time.
Judiciary in Pakistan never get tired of giving wholesome homilies on rule of law and good governance but they would let no opportunity go if it comes to grabbing power and pelf. As a result, while the law-abiding common man’s life is getting caught in a welter of existential problems, ever more batches of swindlers and crooks clamber up the political and financial ladders with impunity.And even then it is democracy that is blamed, not its mock defenders. Predictably, the soothsayers are professing the return of the Praetorian guards, of course, to cleanse the mess caused by the ‘dirty civilians’. If that happens, then true to our political traditions many of the current incumbents, feudals, and businessmen would jump on the Praetorian bandwagon. And ironically, the cost of implementing a damned ordinance, NRO — and that against the sitting president — will be borne by none but the common man and the judiciary. One would lose his democratic rights, the other its nascent independence, to yet another Louis XIV.
Not impressed with the verbosity. Bhagat Raza knows damn well that the "democracy" in Pakistan isn't based on people making rational decisions in voting since they aren't in a position to make independent decisions. It all depends on your clan, ethnicity, etc; more often than not through coersion. Constitutionalism isn't that hard, but the people and the elected "leaders" should know and follow them. The SC has done a wonderful job in keeping the process of democratization alive. The nation realizes that democracy and the ppp (or any party) are not synonomous.
p.s. Why does one has an issue with "Rental Raja" but none with "Taliban Khan". Both aren't good for a stable democracy and sane discourse.
When institutions and media, have had and do, function and succeed to curtail the life span of a structured mandate, should not the mandate be re-structured to follow the function so that, that function is rendered redundant?
business as usual?
Only honest down to core in every way should be allowed to run for any elective position.
Excellent and balanced. If it wasn't ppp, would the legal and judicial reactions still be the same?
Wonderful read, but somehow I can't agree that caretaker setup for more than three months will not be feasible. If caretaker setup can deliver, people and united nations will support them.
The PPP sticking to its guns by indicating to hold elections in 2013 is a very inflexible approach in the present scenario. Some middle ground should be agreed upon in order to have smooth electoral process, i.e elections should be announced more speedily and without any procrastination after the new CEC and interim set up has been agreed upon by the parties as per the constitution. This roughly means the above process can be completed by end July paving way for elections in November. All the speculation about any undemocratic forces staging a coup via the judiciary and the media will die down and democratic traditions will strengthen paving way for an unprecedented era of accountability by ballot and not via the bayonet.
Wonderful. Good read. At least there are some sane voices in media.
very good, Raza.