MFN status and beyond

One of the most remarkable developments of the 20^th century has been the capacity of nations to bolster economic ties even though they remain sharply divided on many vital issues. Thus the US and the former Soviet Union, despite confronting each other for decades, allowed bilateral trade relations to develop. The China-Taiwan and China-India relations are a case in point. A notable exception was India and Pakistan. There was (and still is) a small but powerful lobby that argues that trade relations can only happen once the Kashmir issue has been ‘resolved’.

The proponents of such a line of thinking would acquiesce in making the 1.38 billion people of the subcontinent hostage to their paranoid concept of nationhood. This lobby has, by and large, held sway over the formulation of policy since the inception of this country. Even if the Kashmir problem is not resolved in the next 50 to 100 years, that would, in their view, be no justification to move to normalise relations in key sectors like bilateral trade. Sadly, their position remained unchallenged because espousing a different viewpoint was considered by many to be risky in terms of ‘political survival’.

There is now a palpable movement for change in the obscurantist mindset. The trouble is, those who are prisoners of a mindset or philosophy that despises any dispassionate evaluation of pros and cons of a certain policy do not seem to be amenable to logic and reasoning.

Not very long ago, two eminent Pakistani economists appeared on two different TV talk shows — Mr Shahid Javed Burki, a former finance minister and world bank officer, Dr Ishrat Husain, a former state bank governor. They both argued strongly in favour of normalisation of trade with India and proved, with the help of verifiable statistics, that Pakistan would be a net gainer by any such opening of trade. In view of their very well-reasoned and emphatic assertions, there should be no room for any further misgiving and doubts about any negative fallout on Pakistan should trade ties be fully normalised.

Some critics view this initiative in a restricted framework. It is argued that some relatively cheap Indian manufacturers would adversely affect a few industries in Pakistan. This may happen in a small number of cases. But the bedrock of a lasting relationship between India and Pakistan is people-to-people contact. There would inevitably be downstream effects, e.g. on transport, hotels and restaurants, and a slow but assured expansion of mutually beneficial contacts in the fields of education, science and technology, agriculture etc. In the ultimate analysis, it would change and herald a new era of more open, transparent and meaningful engagement in a number of sectors. It could change the politics of South Asia.

The two countries have carried a baggage of unresolved issues ranging from Kashmir to Sir Creek. As if that was not enough, Afghanistan is fast emerging as a potential battlefield for a proxy war that both nations must strive to avoid at all costs. In this bleak background, if there is a silver lining, it must be greeted with an open mind and enthusiasm.

More than one-fifth of humanity cannot be in bondage indefinitely because some people would prefer to prolong the agony. They need to wake up to the call of the 21^st century.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 17^th,  2011.