Tribune Take: Afghan peace in Pakistan's hands
Naveed Hussain, The Express Tribune’s national editor, offers his analysis of the outcome of these talks, terming them essentially futile.
Hussain says as long as Pakistan is kept out of the loop of talks with the Taliban, peace in Afghanistan is not possible.
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@John B: No doubt, peace in Afghanistan is in Pakistan's interest but not the kind of peace which US has in its plans. The US needs to understand that it has no alternative but to concede Pakistan's legitimate interests in Afghanistan. Pakistan is not going to budge since it has high stakes on the Afghan chessboard and Washington is nobody to dictate how to frame its interests. Indian influence on Kabul in the past has always been a source of trouble in Pakistan' Balochistan and in our tribal areas of KPK. Whatever may be the circumstances, Pakistan will not allow the revival of that ugly past. The only course available for the US is to rein in the irreconcilable NA elements (many of whom were foolishly propped up by the US as counter weight to Karzai but have no independent standing of their own) and allow Karzai to work in close cooperation with Pakistan to kickstart another effort within the framework of the Afghan-Pakistan peace process. To say that the West has succeeded in achieving their objectives is debatable. Only the time will bring out the reality of West's gains and losses. As for as Pakistan is concerned, it never had any problem of terrorism before the US invasion of Afghanistan.
It is again a wrong assumption that Pakistan would ever want to use the Pashtunes against NA. Pashtunes are in majority and they are themselves quite capable of securing their own rightful place in Afghan politics. As for as Pakistan is concerned, it will be prepared to cooperate with any Afghan Government if it is established that it is acting independent of any external influence.
The fact of the matter is the US and Karzai have not really been honest about peace. The fact is while on one hand they talk about peace, on the other they want permanent US bases. This is the issue that has been there since 2008 when the Taliban offered US a safe exit, but Obama wanted them to accept permanent military bases to which Taliban said no.
So how can a puppet like Karzai expect the Taliban to lay down their arms to what? allow foreign occupation which contradicts with Afghan and Islamic teaching?
In regards to Pakistan, the reason you say the series of allegations made against Pakistan was simply because the Taliban vowed to continue to fight until foreigners left Afghanistan. Why did the initial talks not achieve anything? Because despite being in a very weak position, the Americans still want the Afghans to accept occupation even limited occupation.
Why would any Afghan allow something that goes against the very reason they fight?
So, what this really boils down to is this. Either leave and exit gracefully or exit in disgrace.
They thought that Pakistan would force Afghans do accept the US occupation, and as it turns out Kayani and Shuja rightfully said they can bring the Taliban to table but can not guarantee anything since contrary to reports, they don't have much philosophical sway with them at all. Afghans will never accept any foreign aggression on their country, and there will be no peace until the US leaves.
Zardari said it well yesterday, reminding people that Afghanistan is the graveyard of empires.
US needs to go
As much as Pakistan is important in establishing peace in Afghanistan, PAK is not necessary in ending US/NATO combat missions. Afghanistan peace is only in Pakistan's favor, and lack of it only hurts PAK more than anyone else. As such, PAK has no choice but to see a peace in Afghanistan at all cost.
This is the equation PAK establishments are failing to see in their self imposed importance in Afghanistan.
A stable Afghanistan and by extension peace in western Pakistan need thirty years of continued economic engagement and only PAK will be the beneficiary if it joins the chorus.
The west objective is that Afghanistan and PAK soil will not be used as terrorist safe haven, again. In that they have succeeded. Peace in Afghanistan is an icing on the cake.
If PAK thinks that she can use Pashtoon Taliban against NA, she will be wasting her precious years , alone.
It is good that the US and Afghanistan have started to realize the importance of Pakistan's role in the end game. But if they think that they will be able to extract this cooperation and support without addressing Pakistan's security concerns then they are sadly mistaken. Mr. Karzai should realize that after signing the strategic cooperation agreement with India he has lost his equation with Pakistan.