Deportations expose Gulf job reliance

Economists warn remittances vulnerable to policy decisions abroad

KARACHI:

For Pakistani families, a job in the Gulf can mean the difference between financial security and hardship. But sudden job loss can send a worker back to the same weak labour market that pushed him abroad – exposing a vulnerability increasingly visible as thousands are deported.

The recent deportations of 21,951 Pakistanis have brought into focus the country's heavy dependence on overseas jobs to absorb its workforce and on the resulting remittances to support its external account. The immediate financial impact may be limited, but economists warn that dependence on labour markets and policy decisions beyond Pakistan's control leaves millions of households exposed.

Pakistan relying on jobs it does not control

"The immediate UAE impact remained limited, with deported workers' estimated annual transfers at about $42 million, or less than 0.1% of total remittances," said Dr Abid Qaiyum Suleri, an economist at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI).

He said remittances create no public debt, demand no profit repatriation and reach households directly. The weakness arises because Pakistan uses them to compensate for weak exports and low investment, while millions of workers remain subject to rules over which it has almost no influence.

"Remittances exceeded all export earnings in FY26, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE supplied nearly 45% of the total. The UAE deportations have not yet reduced national inflows materially. However, in a geopolitically fragile world, visa policies or other decisions taken abroad can affect a Pakistani family's income overnight," Suleri said.

Remittances reached a record $41.6 billion in FY26. Goods exports earned $30.84 billion, while combined goods and services exports earned $40.88 billion. Remittances offset a trade deficit exceeding $35.5 billion. Without them, the current-account deficit would have approached $41.7 billion. Pakistan has become overdependent on jobs it does not control, he said, noting remittances were 9.9% of GDP in 2025.

Joblessness pushing young workers abroad

Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) Professor of Economics Dr Nasir Iqbal linked the vulnerability primarily to Pakistan's domestic labour market, particularly joblessness among young people.

"It is primarily joblessness in Pakistan that forces people to seek fortune abroad. We have high unemployment, especially among the young. There is no growth in the economy that led to a decline in real wages. All these factors push young workers to go abroad," he explained.

Iqbal described deportation as "a normal phenomenon," adding that "the number is not as high as it seems." He called for better laws and enforcement mechanisms to prevent such incidents.

He stressed the need to focus on future labour demand in Gulf countries and prepare Pakistan's workforce accordingly. "We need to focus on future labour needs in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and prepare our workforce accordingly," he added.

Report warns of wider Gulf labour-market shock

A recent report by PIDE Professor of Economics Dr Shujaat Farooq warned that Pakistan's heavy reliance on the Middle East for labour exports and remittances remained a critical vulnerability.

Farooq noted that around 0.7 million to 0.8 million Pakistanis enter the Middle East each year, while around 6 million currently work in the region, contributing 54% of Pakistan's total remittances.

The report found that around 8 million workers were placed in the Middle East during 2010-24, nearly one-third of the 25.9 million new entrants to Pakistan's labour market during the period.

Farooq warned that a prolonged regional conflict could prevent around half a million Pakistani workers from going to the Middle East in 2026, while more than half a million could be forced to return, placing serious pressure on the domestic labour market, particularly in Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. The report estimated remittances could fall by $3 billion to $4 billion annually, widening the current-account deficit.

When an overseas job disappears

The vulnerability is most visible in the lives of workers who return.

Sajid, a refrigeration technician from Karachi, moved to Dubai hoping to earn a better income. For months, everything went well. Then his supervisor noticed a small wire hanging from an air-conditioning system and fired him with immediate effect. The company subsequently reported him to authorities, leading to his deportation. Back in Karachi, Sajid had to start again from scratch, running from shop to shop looking for work.

Abdullah's experience offers a different outcome. He travelled to Dubai after a friend assured him he would find a good job, but domestic issues shortened his stay. During his time there, he came across an old glue-making machine. He bought it and brought it home, where he started his own small operation.

The contrasting experiences show that overseas migration can produce both vulnerability and opportunity.

Deportation data shows a mixed picture

The data presented in the National Assembly showed that 21,951 Pakistanis were deported from Gulf countries between March 1 and July 13, 2026. Saudi Arabia accounted for the largest share at 15,495, followed by the UAE with 3,803 and Oman with 1,606.

Among the main reasons were "Other" cases (6,662), absconding (4,628), overstay/illegal entry (2,811), jail cases (1,294), lost passports (1,155), blacklist cases (968), drugs (728) and visa violations (689).

The government has rejected the impression of a blanket deportation campaign, maintaining that deportations are linked to violations of host-country laws.

The highest reported category of "Other" could be cases of bounced rental cheques – a serious offence which can trigger legal cases, travel bans and visa problems.

Questions remain about the legal status of returnees. The Ministry of Interior was approached but had not responded. "Questions pertain to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and FIA," said an official at the Ministry of Overseas Pakistanis and Human Resource Development. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs also did not respond.

The bigger economic question

For Pakistan, overseas employment remains indispensable. It provides jobs to workers who might otherwise struggle to find employment, supports millions of households and generates foreign exchange without creating public debt.

Some Pakistanis seek opportunities abroad after prolonged hardship, hoping to escape debts and repay borrowers. Many lack sufficient resources or legal avenues and end up taking irregular routes or violating local laws, often driven by financial pressures.

The cost of dependence

As Suleri pointed out, Pakistan is relying on jobs it does not control. As Iqbal said, domestic joblessness is pushing young workers to seek those jobs. And as Farooq's report warns, a wider disruption could prevent hundreds of thousands from leaving while forcing hundreds of thousands to return.

The immediate deportation figures may not threaten remittance inflows materially. But they offer a glimpse of what could happen if the underlying dependence is tested on a much larger scale.

The policy response cannot be limited to stopping deportations. Pakistan needs better recruitment oversight, stronger enforcement, clearer information for workers before departure and protection mechanisms for those abroad.

When workers return, their skills, savings and overseas experience need to be converted into productive activity at home. Sajid is still looking for work. Abdullah brought back a machine and turned it into a business. Their stories capture the two possible outcomes. For now, the Gulf provides an essential escape valve. But the more Pakistan relies on jobs it does not control, the more vulnerable its workers – and the economy – become to decisions made elsewhere, at the mercy of their paymasters.