El Niño to develop into strong event by July, UN warns

GENEVA:

El Niño will quickly develop into a strong event between July and September, fuelling the likelihood of extreme weather, the United Nations weather and climate agency warned on Friday.

The World Meteorological Organisation said El Niño had already set in, and would quickly gain strength, as it warned countries to brace for impact.

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, bringing worldwide changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns.

It typically takes place every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months.

Conditions oscillate between El Niño and its opposite La Niña, with neutral conditions in between.

The WMO's monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update points towards "a rapid development into a strong El Niño event during July-September".

The UN agency classifies El Niño events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong, meaning it is set to reach the third-highest level out of four.

"El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are forecast to strengthen rapidly over the coming months, increasing the likelihood of … extreme weather events in many parts of the world," the WMO said.

Heatwave risks

The Geneva-based agency said that forecasts produced by leading global climate centres, using different models, indicate a consistent and significant warming of ocean temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

"Seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies expected to exceed 2°C in key monitoring regions," it said.

The models show "remarkable agreement, providing high confidence in the outlook", the WMO said.

"El Niño is expected to continue strengthening during the Northern Hemisphere autumn, with its influence extending across many regions of the globe."

"Meanwhile, the equatorial Atlantic basin is expected to remain generally warmer than average."

The last El Niño contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the all-time high at around 1.55°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.

While El Niño usually peaks between November and February, the resulting spike in temperatures typically comes later down the line.