Stocks stage sharp 4% recovery

KSE-100 jumps 6,700 points in weekly turnaround; geopolitical tensions ease

KARACHI:

Pakistan equities staged a strong recovery during the outgoing week, with the KSE-100 index rallying 4% week-on-week (WoW) to close at 173,939 points, as improving investor sentiment and easing geopolitical concerns supported market momentum.

On a day-on-day basis, the PSX commenced the week's first session in the red, when the KSE-100 tumbled by 6,600 points (-3.95%) to close at 160,591, as heightened geopolitical tensions triggered a broad-based sell-off. The market ended Tuesday's session on a highly strong note, gaining 5,044 points (+3.14%) at 165,635.

PSX extended its rally on Wednesday as the index surged 2,885 points (+1.74%) to settle at 168,520, reflecting sustained investor confidence. The bourse gained further ground on Thursday, advancing 1,392 points (+0.83%) to finish trading at 169,912.

PSX concluded the week with a robust post-ceasefire rally, which pushed the KSE-100 above the 173,000 level to close at 173,939, up 4,027 points (+2.37%), reflecting a sustained bullish momentum.

Arif Habib Limited (AHL) noted that the KSE-100 witnessed a strong turnaround during the outgoing week, with the market gaining pace and rallying. The upswing was supported by the continued positive sentiment stemming from a temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran, alongside expectations of progress in talks and announcement of a 10-day ceasefire in Lebanon, sustaining optimism around a potential recovery. The index closed the week at 173,939 points, up 4% WoW (+6,748 points).

On the macro front, Pakistan posted a current account surplus of $1.07 billion in Mar'26 (Feb'26: $231 million), taking 9MFY26 balance to a surplus of $8 million. The large-scale manufacturing (LSM) output grew 6.5% year-on-year (YoY) in Feb'26, but fell 9% month-on-month (MoM). In 8MFY26, the LSM increased by 5.9% YoY.

Among other data, the banking sector deposits rose 18.6% YoY to Rs37.5 trillion in Mar'26 while advances increased 8.1% and investments surged 20.8%. Power generation momentum remained intact, with Mar'26 output rising 6% YoY to 8,939 gigawatt hours (GWh) on the back of stronger demand and higher contribution from hydel, coal, furnace oil, gas and wind, while generation cost declined 15% to Rs8.08 per kilowatt-hour due to a favourable energy mix.

Auto sales increased 40% YoY to 15.5k units in Mar'26 but dropped 9% MoM. Cumulatively, 9MFY26 volumes increased 43% YoY to 144k units. Technology exports soared 20% YoY (+13% MoM) to $413 million in Mar'26, contributing 46% to total services exports.

OGDCL announced Pakistan's largest-ever oil and gas discovery at the Baragzai X-01 well in Nashpa Block, with the latest injection of 5,300 barrels per day (bpd) of oil, 17 million cubic feet per day (mmscfd) of gas and 15 metric tons per day of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), taking cumulative production to 15,000 bpd and 45 mmscfd.

Meanwhile, Fitch affirmed Pakistan's sovereign rating at 'B-' with a stable outlook. As of April 10, the State Bank's foreign reserves declined by $1.3 billion on Eurobond payment.

JS Global, in its report, noted that the KSE-100 index extended its bullish momentum during the latest week, gaining 4% (6,747 points). The uptrend was supported by easing geopolitical tensions, as Pakistan pursued diplomatic engagements to de-escalate regional tensions.

On the external front, Pakistan's current account posted a surplus of $1.07 billion in Mar'26, driven by a seasonal uptick in remittances ahead of Eid and an improved trade balance, taking the cumulative 9MFY26 surplus to $8 million.

However, the trade deficit widened to $2.4 billion (+9% YoY) in Mar'26, as exports declined by 8% to $2.5 billion, while imports edged up by 1% to $4.9 billion. On a cumulative basis, the trade gap during 9MFY26 expanded by 26% YoY to $23.5 billion, indicating continued pressure on the external position.

Meanwhile, the State Bank's foreign exchange reserves declined by $1.3 billion to $15.1 billion due to Eurobond repayment. Nonetheless, the inflows remained supportive, with Pakistan receiving a $2 billion deposit from Saudi Arabia, the JS report added.