'Draft was ready': how US-Iran talks narrowly missed historic deal in Islamabad

Last-minute 'hiccup' resulted in breakdown of Pakistan-mediated US-Iran talks, say sources

ISLAMABAD:

Local and international journalists were exhausted at the media centre set up just a stone’s throw from the Serena Hotel, where senior Iranian and US officials had been engaged in intense negotiations.

The Jinnah Convention Centre was just across the road from the five-star hotel, yet close proximity to the venue of the talks did not mean access to what was going on behind closed doors.

But it was around 3am when some officials present at the centre were alerted. The message came from people inside the Serena Hotel: “Be ready, there could be a joint statement.”

Suddenly, officials who were on the verge of sleep had to turn agile. But as night gave way to day, the possibility of a “joint statement” faded away.

Instead, a message was relayed to American journalists travelling with the US delegation that Vice President JD Vance would speak to reporters.

Vance said he had “bad news” that talks between the US and Iran had failed to reach a deal. But that was not the entire story.

Read More: Iran accuses US of derailing Islamabad talks after near agreement

The Express Tribune can now report, after interacting with relevant people and diplomatic sources, that both sides were close to agreeing on a framework before a last-minute hiccup. The alert about a “joint statement” stemmed from the progress both sides had made.

“The draft was ready to be signed,” said a diplomatic source, suggesting the agreement was missed by the barest of margins.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also confirmed that both sides were inches away from what he called the “Islamabad MoU”, but, according to the top Iranian diplomat, the US side shifted the goalposts and resorted to a maximalist position at the last minute.

Vance, before departing from Pakistan, insisted that Iran’s failure to give firm assurances regarding not seeking nuclear weapons led to the collapse of the talks.

It has now emerged that the US side wanted Iran to give up uranium enrichment and all existing stockpiles.

The US side was also of the view that Iran was in breach of the ceasefire deal for not reopening the Strait of Hormuz immediately.

The Iranian side, however, wanted guarantees and remained sceptical that the US might backtrack after Tehran gave up on the nuclear issue and reopened the Strait of Hormuz.

Another factor that prevented the two sides from signing on the dotted line was a lack of communication between the Iranian side and the leadership back home due to security reasons.

The US side, on the other hand, had the luxury of speaking to President Donald Trump during the negotiations. Vance confirmed that he spoke to Trump almost a dozen times during the talks.

“This showed how close the two sides were. Otherwise, there was no need for them (the US delegation) to talk to Trump so frequently,” said a diplomatic source. The marathon talks may not have produced results, but laid the framework for future engagement.

The Iranian foreign minister characterised the talks as the most intense engagement with the US since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

“This is remarkable. Pakistan has done what others could not,” said another diplomat who was aware of the developments.

Also Read: FM Dar calls on US, Iran to uphold ceasefire commitment

The Iranian ambassador to Pakistan also said the “Islamabad talks” were not an event but a process that laid the framework for future engagements.

Senior Iranian and US officials may have met for 21 hours, but many more hours and days were spent by Pakistani interlocutors with all sides leading up to the talks.

“A lot of homework was done during that period,” according to sources. “The way Pakistan managed to execute its plans from security to arranging talks was exceptional,” another diplomatic source acknowledged.

The key question now is: what happens next?

“Diplomacy is not dead. There is a stalemate,” said a source.

Pakistan has not given up on its efforts to secure a deal between the US and Iran. Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, who was part of the talks, reached out to key players, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey.

In telephonic conversations with his counterparts, Dar stressed that both sides must adhere to the ceasefire and said Pakistan would continue to mediate between Iran and the US in the days to come.

Diplomatic sources said senior officials from Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia would travel to Islamabad this week as part of efforts to prevent renewed hostilities in the region.

China, too, is in the mix. It supported the Islamabad talks and said it hoped all sides would seize the opportunity.

Despite the Islamabad talks not living up to expectations, there is a sense that all is not lost and diplomacy still has a chance to succeed.

President Trump’s threats to impose a naval blockade around the Strait of Hormuz may just be a tactical move to pressure Iran into signing a deal, according to observers.

“The good thing is the ceasefire is holding. We hope that before the truce ends, there will be progress on the diplomatic front,” said a source.