US-Iran war: three scenarios

The US-Iran war is reaching an inflection point. Two months after the US and Israel started bombing Iran, there are still no clear winners. The temporary ceasefire is holding, but the specter of another phase of hostilities looms large. There is no war, but no peace either at the moment. Iran, on Thursday, via Pakistan, delivered a new set of proposals to the US in a move that rekindled the dwindling hopes for ending the catastrophic war. But President Trump has dampened those hopes by saying that the new plan proposed by Iran is not enough to make a deal. Iran submitted the revised plan after initial proposals were rejected by the US. Details, however, were never made public. It is believed that the initial plan focused only on addressing the Strait of Hormuz issue before tackling more pressing ones such as Iran's nuclear programme. In simple terms, the US wants an "all-in-one deal" while Tehran is keener on a step-by-step process.

However, Iran, in its revised plan, is said to have agreed to discuss the nuclear issue. Remember, Pakistan came close twice in the last two weeks to arranging a second round of talks. But Iran's refusal to engage with the US directly before it lifts the naval blockade has prevented the second round from happening. Since then, backchannel diplomacy has taken over, and both sides are talking to each other through Pakistan. Meanwhile, the Pentagon has briefed President Trump on potential military options to pressure Tehran to sign a deal on Washington's terms. However, the appetite for renewed hostilities is waning. Six in ten Americans say it was a mistake for the US to use military force against Iran, according to a poll by The Washington Post released on Saturday. That is on a par with the 59% who called the Iraq war a mistake in May 2006. A Gallup poll from 1971 noted that roughly six in ten Americans said the same thing about the Vietnam War. Roughly nine in ten Democrats currently call the military action against Iran a mistake, as do 71% of independents and 19% of Republicans.

There are mixed opinions on America's next steps, with 48% of the public saying the US should make a peace deal with Iran even if it results in a worse deal for the US, and 46% saying the US should push Iran for a better deal, even if that means resuming military action. Amid all this, there are three likely scenarios emerging.

First, diplomatic efforts bear fruit, and Iran and the US wind down the war through a historic deal. Both sides, in such a situation, can claim victory and move on. Iran would emerge even stronger. It will gain legitimacy and sanctions relief while also paving the way for potential rapprochement with Gulf countries.

Second, the US decides to restart the war, carries out bombing of energy installations and eliminates leaders who it deems obstacles to a deal. Iran retaliates, targeting energy installations across the Gulf and plunging the world into a global economic recession.

Third, the war ends without any deal. The stalemate over the Strait of Hormuz continues. The hot war turns into a cold war. The cost of such an impasse is going to be monumental. Fuel prices will continue to rise. The world may witness an economic recession without a single shot being fired by either side. Hence, the third option may not necessarily be an option.

This war is like no other conflict. What is at stake is not just regional and global peace, but economic security. Therefore, this deadlock is not tenable. It has to give way. Only time will tell if it happens through diplomacy or war.