Netanyahu seeks to avoid snap vote as Iran war gives no boost in polls

In war's first days, Netanyahu's camp saw a chance for his right-wing coalition to capitalise on the opening ‌salvo

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is racing to pass a state budget and stave off early elections he would likely lose, with the war in ​Iran so far doing little to improve his standing in the polls.

In the war's first days, Netanyahu's camp saw a chance for his right-wing coalition to capitalise on the opening ‌salvo that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by holding elections ahead of an expected October date, a source familiar with Netanyahu's political strategy said.

One way to force snap elections would be to let parliament fail to pass the budget by March 31, which under Israeli law would trigger a vote within 90 days. As US-Israeli strikes killed a host of top Iranian figures, some of Netanyahu's confidants publicly floated the idea of a June vote.

But nearly four weeks into a war that has so ​far failed to achieve a stated objective of toppling Iran's clerical rulers, Israel's longest-serving prime minister is looking to stave off early elections, three members of his government told Reuters.

Read More: Iran rejects US proposal, outlines five conditions to end war

That effort ​to avoid an early contest has included allocating funds to political allies to secure a majority vote for the budget in parliament, and rushing it through the ⁠chamber's Finance Committee to meet next week's deadline.

Netanyahu's political spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment. In public remarks since 2023, Netanyahu has consistently rejected calls to bring elections forward at a time ​of war.

"I hope the government fulfils its term ... meaning elections in September or October," Netanyahu told reporters on March 12, saying that he had appealed to allies to be responsible at a time of war and ​pass the defence-heavy $225 billion budget.

Stalemate in polls as war drags on

For Netanyahu, the war has helped him pivot attention away from Gaza and toward his joint campaign with the US against Iran, where national consensus is strongest. Surveys have shown wide support among Israelis for a war that Netanyahu says is meant to eliminate an existential threat.

But when it comes to votes, election polls are showing a picture largely unchanged since October 7, 2023, leaving Netanyahu's security credentials in tatters.

Polls consistently show around 40% of voters sticking with Netanyahu's coalition of nationalist and religious parties, 40% backing opposition parties and a swing vote so far not moving ​to Netanyahu, said Gideon Rahat, a political scientist at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem.

Read More: No negotiations between US, Iran have taken place: Iran envoy to Pakistan

Even if Israelis rally in support of the war's goals, they are growing weary as it drags on with no decisive end or diplomatic resolution in ‌sight, after ⁠a shorter round of fighting in June, said Rahat.

"You have one round, a few months of quiet, and then another round," he said.

A poll published by the Times of Israel on March 19 showed Netanyahu's Likud party would win 28 of the Knesset's 120 seats, down from 34 at present. While Likud would be the largest party, his coalition would fall short of a majority, securing only 51 seats, the poll said.