Cardi B Super Bowl cameo triggers prediction market dispute

Kalshi complaint filed after ambiguity over whether Cardi B’s halftime appearance qualified as official performance

Cardi B’s appearance during Bad Bunny’s Super Bowl halftime show has led to confusion and complaints on two major prediction market platforms over whether her role qualified as a “performance.”

According to the Associated Press, more than $47 million was traded on Kalshi’s market tied to the question of who would perform at the Super Bowl, while a similar contract on Polymarket generated over $10 million in volume. The disagreement centered on how Cardi B’s participation in Sunday’s halftime show should be classified.

During the performance, Cardi B joined Karol G, Young Miko, Jessica Alba and Pedro Pascal onstage. She danced during the segment and appeared to mouth lyrics, but it was unclear whether she sang live. The show also featured performances by Ricky Martin and Lady Gaga.

Kalshi ultimately cited “ambiguity” over whether Cardi B’s appearance met the criteria for a qualifying performance. Under the platform’s rules, both singing and dancing count as performing, but “just dancing in the background” does not, Kalshi spokeswoman Elisabeth Diana said in a statement Wednesday, as reported by the AP. The company resolved the market at the final trading price before it was halted and returned funds to users.

At least one trader filed a complaint with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), alleging Kalshi violated the Commodity Exchange Act in its handling of the contract. The complaint, first reported by the Event Horizon newsletter and posted by Front Office Sports, seeks $3,700. A CFTC spokesperson declined to comment, according to the AP.

Polymarket resolved its contract in favor of a “yes,” determining that Cardi B had performed, though some users disputed that outcome. As of Wednesday night, there was no update on a final review.

The controversy unfolded during what was otherwise a record-setting season for prediction markets tied to the NFL. Kalshi reported more than $1 billion in trading volume on Super Bowl Sunday alone, a sharp increase from the previous year. The company also acknowledged temporary deposit issues due to the surge in traffic and said it reimbursed certain processing fees and provided credits to affected users.

Robinhood Markets, which has emphasized its expansion into prediction markets, highlighted the sector’s growth during its latest earnings call. CEO Vlad Tenev said the industry could see significant expansion, pointing to major upcoming global events.

The dispute underscores the challenges prediction platforms face when event outcomes hinge on subjective interpretations of what constitutes a performance.