Greenland, white shift and the world of chaos

With President Trump eying Greenland and Venezuelan oil, it appears that the world is transforming into 'no holds barred' phase of international relations or neo-imperialism. In the post-truth era, it may be very challenging to decipher the intent behind rhetoric spewed on a daily basis by populist leaders, especially if they belong to powerful states.

However, a scientific approach may lead to developing an understanding of the world in chaos. We will take two major discourses in current geo-politics to explain what's behind American hyper-activism and what could be its impact on the globe, particularly the Middle East.

First is the Creative Chaos Theory which has been influenced by Chaos Theory used in advance mathematics as well as Complex Systems Theory and has been often applied to politics by neoconservative thinkers. It posits that to break a rigid, stable, but undesirable system (like an authoritarian regime), one can introduce a catalyst of chaos. This chaos destabilises the old order, and from the resulting disorder, new, more adaptive and hopefully democratic structures can spontaneously "self-organise". The chaos is seen as a necessary, if painful, creative force for transformation.

If we dissect the Arab Spring, there were a series of anti-government protests, uprisings and armed rebellions that spread across much of the Arab world beginning in late 2010. It started from Tunisia and quickly spread to Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Syria, Bahrain and other countries. Outcomes varied dramatically: rapid democratisation (Tunisia), protracted civil war (Syria, Libya, Yemen), state control (Bahrain) and a reversion to military domination (Egypt).However, the main motive of the US intervention was a combination of control of hydrocarbon hub, war on terror (as defined by the West) and checking other major players like China by regulating the access to the hydrocarbon hub of Middle East and the Caspian region. How far this Creative Chaos brought the fruits of democracy to the people of Iraq, Syria, Libya and Yemen is very clear.

The other discourse, which is mostly hushed in the West, is the question of demographics. In order to understand the criticality of this phenomenon, we have taken help from White Shift: Populism, Immigration and the Future of White Majorities, a book by political scientist Eric Kaufmann. Published in 2018, it's a seminal work on demography, identity politics and the rise of populist movements in Western nations.

Kaufmann argues that the central, under-explored driver of contemporary Western politics is demographic change and the resulting anxiety of white majorities who are on track to become minorities in their own countries within the lifetimes of their children. This "white shift" is not primarily about economic loss, but about ethnic and cultural displacement, triggering a powerful ethno-traditionalist backlash that fuels populist politics.

Using extensive data, Kaufmann shows that large-scale immigration from non-European countries, combined with lower white birth rates, means the decline of the white majority in countries like the US, the UK and Canada is a mathematical certainty. He frames this not as good or bad, but as an unstoppable fact that societies must psychologically and politically navigate.

Take the case of Greenland. An autonomous territory of the Kingdom of Denmark, Greenland is the largest Island in the world with a geographical area more than double the size of Pakistan, but with a population of just 56,000 people. The youth of Greenland prefer Denmark and Scandinavian countries as well as North America as destinations for higher studies. Naturally, they find more opportunities to work and settle down in these countries. This causes a serious pressure on demographics of Greenland, with some projections suggesting that Greenland may become a redundant territory (from a demographic point of view) by the mid of this century.

Quantifying Greenland's energy and mineral potential in exact dollar terms is challenging due to varying resource prices, exploration levels and significant logistical/political hurdles. However, estimates from geological surveys and industry analyses provide a sense of the staggering scale, often described in the hundreds of billions to over a trillion dollars.

The USGS estimated in 2008 that the waters off Northeast Greenland could hold 50 billion barrels of oil and gas equivalents. Greenland's bedrock is part of the ancient Canadian Shield, which is exceptionally rich in minerals. The potential value is vast but largely untapped.

Greenland's most famous potential is Rare Earth Elements (REEs) and Critical Minerals.

The Kvanefjeld (Kuannersuit) deposit alone is one of the world's largest undeveloped resources of REEs and also contains substantial uranium and zinc. Its in-ground value has been estimated in the tens of billions of dollars. Other major projects include the Kringlerne rare earth deposit and the Disko-Nuussuaq area, which has shown significant potential for nickel, copper, cobalt and platinum-group metals (PGMs) - crucial for the green transition. The US Geological Survey and Danish/Greenlandic authorities suggest the total mineral resource value could exceed $500 billion, with REEs, iron ore, ruby and base metals being the top contributors. The Isukasia project near Nuuk holds an estimated 1.3 billion tons of high-grade iron ore. At historical prices, this represents a $100+ billion resource.

The US motivation to control Greenland can be attributed to the two factors explained above - demographics and creative chaos. Barring the rhetoric by President Donald Trump, the US establishment is very clear. That's why the ghost of Monroe Doctrine is being resurrected to carve out a highly aggressive policy in the Western Hemisphere. While the US control over the vast potential of Greenland and Venezuela will give a boost to the US economy, it would act as a bulwark against China and the Russian Federation in the Western Hemisphere.