Valley of shadow of death

"Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no evil: for you are with me; your power to protect and your presence to guide, they comfort me." - Psalms 23:4

"As I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I take a look at my life and realise there's nothin' left." - Coolio, Gangsta's Paradise

James Jesus Angleton, the celebrated CIA counterintelligence czar, codenamed Mother, called the world of espionage "a wilderness of mirrors". That is true. However, I prefer to call it the valley of the shadow of death because of the existential nature of the threats spies face. But not all spies are created equal. Some can live to tell the tale. Others may face exposure, capture or death. The most interesting cases are those of agents facing a burn notice, which is issued when an agent, asset or source is officially disavowed for being unreliable or making an unforgivable mistake. Bear this in mind, as it will prove useful.

Ironically, all of this is happening in the dying months of 2025. Later, I will tell you why. However, I first heard of his name in 1999, and it was in connection with something monumental. Oh wait. Now you feel you are missing something. You are not. The missing piece has not yet been provided. I am not burying the lede. Just a tease, a weapon in a writer's arsenal. For a good reason, as you will see.

Before introducing the trigger for this piece, a reminder of our current position. Pakistan faced a flurry of activities and attacks this month. Suddenly, the TLP, which was sleeping during the entire length of the Gaza tragedy, woke up right when a peace plan had already come into effect. It wanted to protest in front of the US embassy. The US, under President Trump, has brokered a tense peace, which has seen a dramatic reduction, if not total cessation, of violence there. Was the purpose just to protest, to gain attention, or to create a Benghazi-like situation? Incidentally, this was happening when the Afghan Taliban had decided to send its acting foreign minister (he has been acting for four years) and send proxies into Pakistan to wreak havoc. As if that were not enough, they decided to attack Pakistan. As you read these lines, a tense ceasefire is ending, and talks between Pakistani and Taliban officials are reportedly set to begin. The PTI, in its infinite wisdom, decided to remove and replace its chief minister in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. Sounds like a sequel to Everything Everywhere All at Once, right?

This suggests someone powerful is unhappy, angry or in a hurry due to a looming change. This brings us to the state of play in India. The Modi government is facing a three-body problem: the looming Bihar elections, growing Pakistani influence, partly due to its own flawed policies and a misguided war, and the rising cost of its foreign policy mistakes. Could it unleash elements on Pakistan as a punitive measure?

Meanwhile, in the US, buoyed by his successful diplomacy in the Middle East, President Trump has set his eyes on the intractable problem of the Ukraine war. His foreign policy is coming together, and he has assembled a strong national security team. He is also trying to fulfil one of his 2016 campaign promises of "draining the swamp". The swamp, for the uninitiated, is the army of lobbyists, influencers and middlemen whose job it is to influence policy outcomes, even at the cost of bringing an administration to its knees. His India policy is interesting because, even when he does not intend to rile up New Delhi, he manages to do so, due to the Indian government's hypersensitivity. For a leader who ran on the platform of challenging the obsessive political correctness of the DC elites, to tiptoe around the growing circle of this hypersensitivity is a big ask.

Amidst all this comes the story that triggered this piece: the arrest of the Indian American defence expert Ashley Tellis, the man I mentioned earlier. As I was saying, his name came to my attention in 1999 when an Indian outlet boasted about a wargame report called "Asia 2025". It was a forward-looking study of various postulated geopolitical shifts in the next 25 years. The scenario the publication celebrated was the dismemberment of Pakistan and Afghanistan, their merger with India and the emergence of a powerful Indian superstate. Now you get the irony, too. And Mr Tellis was one of the contributors. Since then, I have been following his career. Born in a Christian family in Mumbai, he had come a long way. His career was devoted to two things: American national interest, and finding ways to convince the US of the importance of an alliance with India. This report has fuelled the imagination of the Hindutva dream of Akhand Bharat for the past quarter of a century. And I have quoted many BJP leaders predicting that after 2025, Pakistan will become a part of India.

However, Mr Tellis has not been arrested for passing on information to India, which he frequently visited. No. It is a case of stolen classified documents and at least one meeting with Chinese officials, in which he is accused of leaving behind a manila envelope. Intriguing, right? Why would a card-carrying Indophile, unpaid adviser to the State Department, and a paid contractor of the Defence Department pass on critical information to China? Could this be a trap?

But the plot thickens. He had started writing against the Indian government and the country as an ally since 2023. Looks like Mr Modi's policies were not sitting well with his constitution.

Now there are two distinct possibilities: that all of this is true, and he was caught with his hand in the proverbial cookie jar, or that he was framed.

The Indian intelligence community's influence operations function in such a way that it would kill your loved ones, frame you for their murder, and if I tried to help you and was successful in proving you innocent, frame me for framing you. Could Mr Tellis be an Indian asset who was issued a burn notice because he reacted as any conscientious minority member would when asked to defend an extremist government of the country of his origin, instead of the country itself? Only time will tell.

One thing is for sure: India under Modi is capable of doing such a thing. Pakistan is the last place where its influence should be felt, but it is. I have illustrated that many times, and the above-mentioned flurry of attacks is one such example. Indophiles and Indian expatriates in the world, beware. Your long service to India will amount to nothing if you cannot carry water for Modi's regime.