India’s October rains may be too much of a good thing, threaten harvests

India likely to see over 115% of 50-year average rainfall in October, Indian met chief says

India is expected to receive above-average rainfall in October, following above-normal precipitation in September, a senior weather department official said on Tuesday.

Above-average rainfall in October could damage summer-sown crops such as rice, cotton, soybeans, corn, and pulses, which are nearing harvest.

The country is likely to receive above-average rainfall of more than 115% of the 50-year average in October, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), told a virtual news conference.

India received 15% above-average rainfall in September, raising the total monsoon surplus for June–September to 8%, he said.

The monsoon is the lifeblood of India’s nearly $4 trillion economy, delivering almost 70% of the rainfall needed to water farms and replenishing aquifers and reservoirs.

Nearly half of India’s farmland is not irrigated and depends on the annual June-September rains for crop growth.

However, excessive monsoon rainfall in recent weeks has begun damaging summer-sown crops in states such as Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh.

The central, eastern, and southern regions are likely to receive heavy rainfall during the first half of October due to the development of a low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal, Mohapatra said.

This system is also delaying the withdrawal of the monsoon from central India, which has so far receded from the northwestern parts of the country, he said. The monsoon usually completes its retreat from the entire country by October 15.

Crops urgently need dry weather to recover from the recent heavy rainfall and allow farmers to harvest the mature produce, said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house.

“If it keeps raining like the weather office says, farmers could be looking at huge losses, especially for cotton, soybean, and paddy,” the dealer said.

Maximum temperatures in October are likely to be average to below average due to the surplus rainfall, Mohapatra said.