The great disorder

If there is one book that I would recommend to my readers in these confusing and tumultuous times in global affairs — a rule-based order has run its course without a new one in place — it is Robert D Kaplan's Waste Land. Kaplan is a geopolitical realist who reads history and literature to contextualise the present and suggest how the future may unfold in geopolitical terms. He proposes that the existing international environment closely replicates the times of the Weimar Republic of the intervening years between the two Great Wars culminating in Hitler's rise. He calls it a consequence of the times we lived in. He includes global trends like the Communist revolution in Russia in 1917, a response to the muddled global climate when the League of Nations had all but lost its relevance. My focus though is on an environment of impunity that disorder and a chaotic present has become. When no one controls a bully, he only tears apart what has been whole for decades. In the absence of a rule-based order, world's insurance against such unpredictability stands badly exposed. We too live in such times.

Israel chose to attack Qatar when ostensibly peace was being worked out under a US-sponsored plan to end genocide in Gaza. Netanyahu attempted to eliminate Hamas' interlocutors and political leadership engaged in the negotiations. Hamas was there on US invitation and assurance of their safety by the Qataris. If ever there was a betrayal of trust in international commitment this was the last nail in its coffin. The moment is similar in context to the rise of Hitler and dissolution of the Weimar. It leaves the possibility that the likes of Netanyahu can cause the dominoes to topple just as Hitler did in 1939. In the absence of any conflict-resolution mechanism, or authority, or an arbiter that all trust, it is about to be free for all. Towards the end of WWII, a weapon of ultimate arbitration emerged in the form of America's nuclear bombs which brought the last of the axis powers to its knees. Is the world about to witness a repeat of similar proportions?

It must though all begin with investigating what the US has in mind about its own role and position in the world as newer realities unfold. The US is largely driven by an apprehension of its preeminence because of feared disruptions around emerging economic structures built on rapid advances in technology and AI. China has made rapid advances in these fields, and it has unnerved America. Rather than fight to retain its singularity and control of the world system devised in Bretton Woods, the US is resorting to its ultimate power of equivalence through use of military force — if not directly, through its proxies in Europe, Middle East and Asia. More than the world threatening the post-WWII order it is American fear of being dislodged as its prime arbiter that seems to lead the dissolution of that order.

China and the world at large have found stability, predictability and prosperity under the existing global regime and methods of arbitration. America has underwritten this stability through its leadership. But when leadership is unnerved and unsure, and apprehensive, it tends to take extreme measures. That is why no one is sure if the UN and its affiliates have the authority and capacity to arbitrate conflicts. If the US undermines the UN or the WTO it undermines its own control and domination of the international system. Israel, Ukraine and India continue to be bolstered by the US to do as told. Hence, Israel's demonic role in Gaza, and now this unprovoked and licentious behaviour against Qatar, remains unchecked.

It cannot be Trump's commercial instincts alone when thousands are being slaughtered in Gaza. Or is he simply playing second fiddle to what Netanyahu and Israel may think is a strategic end? Is Netanyahu running against time under a threat of continuing whittling of American credibility in the world and its position as the preeminent power when it is seen to be standing with and behind Israel in its adventurism?

The American society stands badly polarised on the verge of a fracture if American political leadership cannot restore its credibility in global perception. Or is Trump deliberately engendering global turmoil to defeat the Chinese plan to find a faster route to becoming the world's most powerful nation replacing the US? Is it even the case, or has Trump misread the global state and is letting American preeminence slip out of his hands in fearful panic? Someone in the US needs to slow the pace at which America is unravelling its own creation of a global order. The world is barely finding its pace to know progress. It is most unlikely to threaten dissolution of a system which has given it unmatched prosperity collectively.

In more manifest terms the US remains highly wary of China's perceived moves in the South China Sea. However, it remains only an assessment. In a world where interests are far narrower and parochial than broad enough to bother with general peace and stability — amid a diminishing recourse to conflict resolution amid institutional meltdown — fear, panic and apprehensions make for a poor strategy. Rather than push world into blocs it is time to lead the world to a more certain future. That will need the US to play a more equitable and fairer role in international affairs. Encouraging proxies to roughshod over what little morals are left in global interaction and human rights is surely not the way to go. In such state of global uncertainty and perpetual muddle it is time to conserve power than to join the club of those looking to upend the order. There is so much more to do at home for countries like Pakistan.

Gaza has been literally obliterated in the last almost two years through an incessant destruction campaign by the mighty Israeli army when compared to the rudimentary and rag-tag Hamas militia. But then that is the nature of the new war. What might happen there, no one knows, but it will continue to be prolonged and perpetuated through continuing tussle between two extreme sentiments rooted in history.

But this must not push those on the outside to push for the comfort of blocs instead. Especially when both China and Russia, equally alive to the happenings around them, hardly raise an eyebrow. If someone can stop Israel from its crazy adventurism it can be the US, China or Russia — not the OIC or the Arab League — and they have quietly gone on with their business. Pakistan must take a leaf from those who can, to know who can't, and quietly go about its own business. Untimely rhetoric can become an unnecessary shackle.