The current situation in Afghanistan

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Although the international community is preoccupied with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and the lingering crisis triggered by Israeli aggressions in the Middle East, the situation further afield in the South Asian region remains tenuous as well.

Besides the potential risk of another Indo-Pak flare-up, Pakistan's relations with Afghanistan are tense. The possibility of cross-border proxies engaging in terrorist attacks within Pakistan is a major threat. In addition to trying to secure the long and porous Af-Pak border, around 800,000 Afghans seeking refuge in Pakistan have been expelled since 2023.

The latest UN report on Afghanistan describes the troubled state of our northwesterly neighbour. It points out how the security situation in Afghanistan has not stabilised despite the end of major military conflict between the US-led NATO forces and the Taliban. The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant-Khorasan (ISIL-K) continues to defy the domination of the Taliban regime.

Besides attacking 'soft targets' such as religious minorities, ISIL-K continues high-profile attacks, for example, at the Ministry of Urban Development and Housing earlier this year. Other opposition groups such as the National Resistance Front led by Ahmad Masood, and the Afghanistan Freedom Front, comprised of former government and military officials, are still operational. However, neither the ISIL-K nor these other opposition groups have the capability to threaten the Taliban's vice-like hold on the war-ravaged country.

The above-mentioned UN assessment further notes how the new school year, which started in spring, has again barred girls and women from going to secondary schools or from pursuing higher education. Humanitarian needs in the country remain dire too. Yet, the UN's own humanitarian response plan for the current year, which aspired to support nearly 17 million Afghans barely managed to secure over 15 per cent of its proposed $2.42 billion budget.

International funding, on which nearly half the Afghan population remains so dependent, has been shrinking, and it seems unlikely to rise again under present circumstances. Global US aid cuts have severely undermined UN affiliated efforts by the World Food Program, for instance, as well as the work of many major non-profits, such as the International Red Cross. Other rich western countries are not stepping up their commitments to compensate for the loss of American aid.

Conversely, China's influence in Afghanistan has grown. China is currently trying to mediate the resumption of bilateral ties between Islamabad and Kabul, which had been suspended for nearly four years. Earlier this month, Pakistan announced that its charge d'affaires stationed in Kabul would be elevated to the rank of ambassador, and Kabul followed suit by announcing that its representative in Islamabad would also be upgraded to the same rank. Only a handful of countries — including China and Russia — have yet agreed to host Taliban-appointed ambassadors since their return to power in 2021. However, none of these countries, including Pakistan, has yet formally recognised the Taliban rulers.

The Taliban have been in power for nearly four years now, so they have had ample time to make a transition from an insurgency movement to a more functional government. Their hardline and iron-fisted stance was initially explained as being motivated by their fear of losing the support of hardline elements who may have joined even more extreme outfits such as the ISIL-K. However, the Taliban regime now has no excuse. It must broaden its myopic approach, and make a genuine effort to deliver responsible governance, via incremental representation rather than continued repression. Otherwise, Afghanistan will remain a pariah state.