Vegetables drive weekly SPI up 0.02%

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KARACHI:

The Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the week ending June 4, 2025, registered a marginal rise of 0.02%, reflecting mixed price trends for essential commodities across Pakistan. The SPI, which monitors 51 key items across 50 markets in 17 cities, showed notable weekly increases in tomatoes (16.94%), potatoes (11.52%), and onions (5.21%). Moderate price hikes were also observed in bananas (1.57%), eggs (1.34%), sugar (1.24%), Basmati broken rice (1.02%), gur (0.81%), and petrol (0.41%).

Conversely, chicken prices dropped sharply by 11.22%, while garlic declined by 3.71%. Minor decreases were recorded in LPG, vegetable ghee, and cooking oil. Overall, prices of 18 items (35.29%) increased, 6 items (11.77%) fell, and 27 items (52.94%) remained unchanged.

On a year-on-year basis, the SPI posted a slight decline of 0.02%, indicating relative price stability. However, some items experienced steep annual hikes, including ladies' sandals (55.62%), eggs (35.36%), pulse moong (31.74%), powdered milk (23.82%), and sugar (23.51%). Other increases were seen in beef, bananas, and various pulses.

Major annual declines were recorded in onions (64.90%), electricity charges for the first quarter (36.54%), garlic (27.79%), potatoes (23.15%), and tomatoes (18.10%). Wheat flour, tea, chilies, diesel, and rice Irri also registered lower prices compared to last year.

Pakistan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to be 2.7% for May 2025, according to KS Global. "The base effect is now fading, signalling a return to normalised price trends," said Muhammad Waqas Ghani, Research Head at JS Global. This brings the average inflation for 11MFY25 to 4.7%, down significantly from 24.9% in 11MFY24. JS Global forecasts FY25 average inflation at 4.6%, with a forward 12-month estimate of 5.7%. Following rapid disinflation, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) cut the policy rate to 11% in its last Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. A further reduction of 50–100 basis points is possible, with the next MPC meeting scheduled for June 16, 2025.