Climate change and the quest for 'positive tipping points'
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When world leaders gather in Belém, Brazil this November for the 2025 UN Climate Change Conference (COP30), they will need to confront an uncomfortable truth: the planet is running out of time. The era of climate diplomacy built on promises is over; the age of implementation must begin.
A stark reminder of this urgency came from the Global Tipping Points Report 2025, authored by 160 scientists from 87 institutions across 23 countries. Its findings are chilling: Earth has already crossed its first major climate tipping point. Warm-water coral reefs, the once vibrant ecosystems that sustained a quarter of marine life, are dying on a massive scale. This coral reef devastation marks the start of irreversible environmental shifts.
Without immediate and coordinated global action to limit warming to 1.5°C, the planet risks cascading crises, ranging from collapsing ice sheets, to rising seas, drying rivers and dying forests. The only way forward is through rapid and widespread adoption of clean technologies that can trigger "positive tipping points".
There is some positive news here. Many of the technologies needed to alleviate climate change already exist, and their adoption has also become widespread. In the first half of 2025, renewable energy overtook coal as the world's leading source of electricity, according to the think-tank Ember. Solar and wind power met 100% of new electricity demand worldwide, even causing a small dip in coal and gas use, which was a global first.
Solar power, in particular, has become the hero of the energy transition. It now supplies 83% of the growth in electricity demand and is the cheapest form of energy in history. Prices of solar panels have fallen a staggering 99.9% since 1975, opening new markets across the global south. Pakistan imported solar panels capable of generating 17 gigawatts of power in 2024 - double the previous year - while Africa's solar imports surged by 60%, led by South Africa, Nigeria and Algeria. The "sun belt" of Asia, Africa and Latin America is electrifying itself, panel by panel.
China, for all its coal plants, is also the uncontested leader in clean energy. President Xi Jinping's pledge to increase wind and solar capacity sixfold by 2030 has already propelled the country to add more renewable energy than the rest of the world combined. Contrast that with the US, where renewable energy growth has slowed dramatically. The International Energy Agency has halved its forecast for US clean energy expansion this decade, citing policy backsliding under Trump administration. Washington is once again pushing oil and gas exports. Europe's renewable system relies heavily on wind and hydropower, both of which suffered from weak output in 202425 due to lower wind speeds and droughts. As a result, Europe too has been burning more coal and gas to meet energy needs.
Despite lackluster performance in wealthier countries, clean power has managed to keep pace with global energy demand growth. The challenge now is to ensure that this momentum doesn't stall but continues to experience an upward swing.
The experiences of countries like Pakistan highlight the contradictions of the emerging renewables energy era. Solar panels offer the promise of cleaner air in smog-choked cities, yet persistent air pollution from vehicles and industry reduces their efficiency, while simultaneously posing severe health risks. At the same time, widespread reliance on solar-powered water pumps is further depleting groundwater, creating fresh ecological pressures.
For climate hotspot nations like Pakistan to build true resilience, a more comprehensive approach is needed which can help implement robust strategies to contend with recurrent floods and droughts, promote efficient water use and conservation, curb widespread pollution, and support the adoption of cleaner fuels to combat air pollution.
This is where the recently formulated Global Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage can make a positive difference. However, so far, this fund has mobilised a miniscule $500 million.
Climate resilience demands accountability, sustained financing and tangible action on the ground. The ability of increasingly inward-focused and transactional leaders to follow through on such commitments remains to be seen.
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