Budget uncertainty keeps PSX restrained

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) closed the week on a negative note with a loss of 50 points, weighed down by growing investor anxiety ahead of the federal budget and concerns over proposed International Monetary Fund (IMF)-backed tax measures targeting exporters and industrial sectors.

Friday's session reflected narrow, range-bound trading before settling slightly lower at a level above 119,100 points. Despite intra-day gains above the 120,000 mark, the KSE-100 index failed to hold the momentum, with resistance firmly capping advances.

'Stocks closed lower amid pre-budget uncertainty and concerns over weak exports,' noted Arif Habib Corp Managing Director Ahsan Mehanti. Investor concerns over IMF-driven new tax measures proposed for exporters and industries, the National Assembly's approval of Off-grid (CPPs) Levy Bill and rupee instability played the role of catalysts in negative close.

At the end of trading, the benchmark KSE-100 index recorded a decline of 50.37 points (-0.04%), settling at 119,102.67.

Arif Habib Limited (AHL) stated that 39 stocks advanced while 59 declined, with Engro Holdings (+3.08%), Attock Refinery (+3.48%) and Pakgen Power (+4.6%) emerging as the top contributors to index gains. On the downside, Fauji Fertiliser Company (FFC, -1.91%), MCB Bank (-1.09%) and Systems Limited (-0.98%) weighed on the benchmark index.

Despite briefly moving above the 120,000 level during the week, the index failed to sustain the momentum, with strong resistance at 120k holding firm. While a breakout is anticipated, the market's inability to stay above 120k raises the risk of further declines towards support levels, AHL said.

"A range-bound session was observed at the exchange on the last trading day of the week as the index traded between the intra-day high of +389 points and intra-day low of -488 points with low volumes to finally close at 119,103 (down 0.04%)," Topline Securities wrote in its market review.

The top positive contribution to the index came from Engro Holdings, Attock Refinery, Pakgen Power, Meezan Bank and Pakistan Services as they cumulatively added 280 points. On the other hand, the top negative contribution came from FFC, MCB Bank, Systems Limited, Mari Petroleum, Pakistan Petroleum, HBL, Hubco and Engro Fertilisers, which pulled the index down by 257 points.

Traded value-wise, Attock Refinery (Rs1.49 billion), Frieslandcampina Engro (Rs1.01 billion), Mari Petroleum (Rs564 million), Hubco (Rs557 million) and Pakistan Petroleum (Rs505 million) dominated the activity, Topline added.

"Dull activity was observed on the last trading day of the week as investors adopted a cautious stance and preferred to stay on sidelines ahead of the federal budget," wrote Mohammed Waqar Iqbal of JS Global. The KSE-100 index fluctuated between the intra-day high of 119,542 points (+389) and the low of 118,665 points (-487), before closing with a marginal loss of 50 points at 119,102.

Trading volumes remained thin throughout the day, with major participation seen in sideboard stocks. "Going forward, we expect the market to continue consolidating; hence, investors are advised to wait for dips before taking fresh positions," he said.

Overall trading volumes were recorded at 338 million shares compared with the previous tally of 589.8 million. The value of shares traded during the day was Rs18.5 billion. Shares of 459 companies were traded. Of these, 183 stocks closed higher, 232 fell and 44 remained unchanged.

Big Bird Foods was the volume leader with trading in 32.7 million shares, gaining Rs2.09 to close at Rs53.86. It was followed by WorldCall Telecom with 19.4 million shares, losing Rs0.02 to close at Rs1.25 and Descon Oxychem with 16.1 million shares, gaining Rs2.28 to close at Rs35.96. During the day, foreign investors sold shares worth Rs336.5 million, according to the NCCPL.