In a sudden and alarming development, India has significantly increased the inflow of water into the Chenab River, sparking concerns of water aggression against Pakistan. The move comes barely days after New Delhi unilaterally suspended the World Bank-brokered Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), Express News reported on Tuesday.
The Chenab river – one of the three western rivers allocated to Pakistan under the 65-year-old treaty – saw a drastic and abrupt surge in water flow. According to Express News, the inflow at Head Marala was recorded at just 3,100 cusecs at 9pm on Monday. By Tuesday, it had surged to 26,000 cusecs - a dramatic and unexplained increase within a matter of hours.
Punjab Irrigation Minister Kazim Pirzada confirmed the "unnatural change" in the river's flow.
"We have witnessed changes in the river [Chenab] which are not natural at all," Pirzada told AFP. "One day the river had normal inflow and the next day it was greatly reduced," he added. "The majority impact will be felt in areas which have fewer alternate water routes," he said about its impact.
According to daily data shared by the Indus River System Authority (Irsa), a total of 132,000 cusecs of water was released from various rim stations, while the inflow stood at 188,800 cusecs. The data also indicated that 7,700 cusecs of water was released from the Chenab River at Marala.
The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT}, signed in 1960 between Pakistan and India, permits India to use the shared rivers for irrigation purposes but prohibits it from diverting watercourses or altering downstream flows. However, on April 23, India unilaterally suspended the treaty, citing Pakistan's alleged involvement in the killing of 26 tourists in Pahalgam.
In response, Pakistan warned India that tampering with its rivers would be considered "an act of war". On Tuesday, Information Minister Attaullah Tarar repeated the warning while speaking in the National Assembly. "Any attempt to divert Pakistan's water resources would trigger a strong response."
On Monday, according to a Reuters report, India started "reservoir flushing" process at the Salal and Baglihar projects on the Chenab River in the Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK). The activity was carried out without informing Pakistan - a requirement under the IWT.
The reservoir flushing process initially results in sediment-laden waters being released downstream from the reservoirs, potentially causing sudden inundation, followed by a reduced flow of water as the reservoirs are refilled.
On Tuesday, according to an Indian newspaper report, the gates of the sluice spillways on the Baglihar dam were lowered to restrict water flow as a short-term punitive action. The Punjab irrigation minister said that this was being done "so that we don't get to utilise the water".
Experts said the water cannot be stopped in the longer term, and that India could only regulate timings of when it releases flows. However, the Jinnah Institute warned: "Even small changes in the timing of water releases can disrupt sowing calendars (and) reduce crop yields".
Meanwhile, according to another Reuters report, India advanced the start date of four under-construction hydropower projects in IIOJK by months. Quoting sources, the report said that the updated schedule was another sign of India trying to take advantage of its unilateral suspension of the IWT.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government had asked authorities to clear hurdles to speedy construction of four hydro projects with a combined capacity of 3,014 megawatts, according to the document, an undated list made by the power ministry and reviewed by Reuters.
In a speech in New Delhi, Modi said that water from IIOJK would be stopped from flowing across the borders. "India's water will be stopped for India's interests, and it will be utilised for India," he said.
The four projects are Pakal Dul, 1,000 MW; Kiru, 624 MW; Kwar, 540 MW; and Ratle, 850 MW. All of them are on the Chenab River, whose waters are mainly meant for Pakistan. India's State-run NHPC is asked to start the work between June 2026 and August 2028, the document showed.
Pakistan and India are already in dispute over Ratle in the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague. The dispute is about the pondage, or small water storage area, the turbine design and some other specifications. In total, India wanted work expedited on a total of seven projects, the report stated. (WITH INPUT FROM AGENCIES)
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