PMD chief warns temperatures could soar up to 5°C above normal

Chief Meteorologist Afzal says winter rainfall down 42%; Sindh 63%, Balochistan 53%, Punjab 41% below normal.

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The chief meteorologist of the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has warned of significant temperature rise in the coming months in the country, saying forecasts indicate temperatures may rise by 3°C to 5°C above normal levels.

Speaking at a press conference, Chief Meteorologist Muhammad Afzal revealed that winter rainfall was recorded 42% below normal, with Sindh receiving 63% less rain, Balochistan 53%, and Punjab 41%.

The alarming decline in rainfall has pushed dams and water reservoirs to dead levels, raising concerns over water availability for agriculture and domestic use.

Afzal further cautioned that below-normal rainfall is expected in the northern regions, exacerbating the water crisis. The shortage could lead to crop failures, the spread of diseases, and a negative impact on wildlife. He urged the public to use water wisely to mitigate the crisis.

Major metropolitan areas will experience heatwave conditions due to the urban heat island effect, accelerating drought conditions.

The intense heat may also accelerate the melting of glaciers, increasing river flows temporarily but raising the risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) and flash floods in northern areas.

Pakistan typically receives 19.4% of its annual rainfall between April and June, but below-average rainfall is expected this year, which could contribute to groundwater depletion, particularly in rain-fed regions.

Additionally, cyclone formation over the Arabian Sea cannot be ruled out in May due to the rising sea surface temperatures.

During the Eidul Fitr holidays, most parts of the country will experience hot and dry weather, with temperatures likely to remain 2 to 3°C above normal. In Karachi, daytime temperatures may rise by 3°C to 4°C above normal levels, adding to the discomfort for citizens.

A wet spell with rain, thunderstorms, and snowfall over mountains is expected in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir, and northern Punjab on March 26-27.

Areas such as Chitral, Dir, Swat, Kohistan, and Mansehra may receive moderate to heavy rainfall, while dust storms and thunderstorms are also likely over the plains of Punjab.

Heavy rainfall in northern areas could lead to flash floods in some regions, while windstorms, hailstorms, and lightning pose a risk to electric poles, trees, vehicles, solar panels, and standing crops. Landslides and slippery conditions may also affect mountainous areas.

The authorities and relevant stakeholders have been advised to implement precautionary measures to address the impacts of rising temperatures, heat waves, and water shortages.

Public awareness campaigns should be launched to inform communities about heatwave preparedness and water conservation strategies. The Met Office has urged the public to stay hydrated, avoid unnecessary outdoor exposure, and conserve water to reduce the impact of the looming crisis.