'Al Qaeda could be degraded to existing mostly as a propaganda arm in two years'

Vickers says FATA may continue to remain epicenter of terrorism even if al Qaeda is eliminated.

WASHINGTON: The US Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence, Michael G. Vickers has said that assuming there are sustained (counterterrorism) operations against al Qaeda, the cohesion between the group and its operational capabilities “could be degraded to the point that the group could fragment and exist mostly as a propaganda arm”, within 18-24 months.

According to the transcript released by the Department of Defense of Vickers’ address at the NDU, he said that al Qaeda had relationships with groups such as the TTP and the Haqqani network that allowed it to not just have safe haven in those areas, but could also lead to the possibility of conducting “joint operations”.

Vickers added that while al Qaeda remained a thread to the United States, it was “under more pressure and in a more precarious position than at any time since the 2001 ejection from its safe havens in Afghanistan.” He said that their leaders were being eliminated at a rate faster than al Qaeda can replace them.

Undersecretary Vickers’ remarks came on the day that US officials confirmed that the al Qaeda chief of operations Abu Hafs al Shahri was killed in Waziristan earlier this week. Al Shahri’s death follows the death of AQ second in command Atiyah abd al-Rahman in Waziristan, and the arrest of Younas al Mauritani in recent weeks.

Vickers added that, “Of the top nine leaders al Qaeda had on September 11, 2001, only Ayman al-Zawahiri has thus far managed to escape death or detention.”

“Assuming sustained [counterterrorism] operations against the group, within 18 to 24 months core al Qaeda cohesion and operational capabilities could be degraded to the point that the group could fragment and exist mostly as a propaganda arm,” he said.

According to a transcript of his speech released by the Department of Defense, Vickers “likened FATA as epicenter of the “world’s worst of global jihad” to the scene in Star Wars Episode IV: A New Hope of a rundown cantina on the planet Tatooine frequented by the worst scoundrels in the universe.”

The Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence also said that the presence of TTP, the Haqqani Network and the Commander Nazir group who provided AQ with safe haven will ensure that FATA will “almost certainly remain a principal area of US counterterrorism focus well after core al Qaeda is dismantled.”

Vickers said that the United States has shown AQ in Yemen, Pakistan and Somalia that it “will enjoy no safe haven.”