Ontario Premier Doug Ford has been reelected for a third term with a clear mandate to confront the looming threat of US President Donald Trump's tariffs on Canadian imports.
Ford’s Progressive Conservative Party secured a majority in the provincial legislature, with unofficial results showing 82 seats, a commanding lead over the New Democratic Party (NDP), which won 25 seats, and the Liberals, who garnered 14.
Ford, whose victory speech resonated with nationalistic fervor, addressed a crowd of supporters at a Toronto convention center. “Donald Trump thinks he can break us,” Ford declared, stressing that Canada would not yield to external pressure. “Canada will never, ever be the 51st state. Canada is not for sale.” His words underscored the political climate of tension between Canada and the US, especially in light of Trump’s recent threats to impose steep tariffs on Canadian imports.
The election was called a year earlier than expected, amid growing concerns over the US trade policies under President Trump. Ford, who has positioned himself as a staunch defender of Ontario’s economy, announced that his government was prepared to spend “tens of billions of dollars” to mitigate the impact of potential tariffs, particularly on Ontario’s manufacturing and automotive sectors. He also alluded to using Ontario's energy exports as leverage, proposing that Americans might have to pay more for electricity.
The threat of tariffs, particularly Trump’s proposed 25% levy on Canadian goods, was a central issue during the campaign. Ford made two visits to Washington to speak directly with US government officials and business leaders, advocating for Ontario’s interests. His aggressive stance against tariffs and his willingness to work with any political group or level of government to protect Ontario’s economic interests resonated with voters.
Preemptive move amidst criticism
The timing of the election raised eyebrows, with opposition parties accusing Ford of calling it prematurely to avoid potential political fallout from an ongoing police investigation into his controversial land development plans. Critics argued that the funds spent on the election could have been better invested in healthcare and affordable housing, issues that are also important to Ontarians.
Political analysts, however, suggested that the tariff threats provided Ford with a convenient justification for an early election. Jonathan Malloy, a political scientist at Carleton University, noted that the public’s growing concern over Trump’s tariffs made Ford’s reelection campaign more politically advantageous. “Mr. Ford is seen as responding proactively to the tariff threat,” Malloy remarked. “That resonates with voters who are anxious about the economic impact.”
Political landscape post-election
The reelection results saw the NDP, under leader Marit Stiles, return as the official opposition, while the Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, failed to retain their seat. The Greens, with leader Mike Schreiner at the helm, won two seats. For the first time in Ontario’s modern political landscape, the Progressive Conservatives have managed to secure a solid majority government.
The opposition leaders, however, remained critical of Ford’s administration. Stiles argued that voters re-elected Ford primarily to protect Ontario from the threat of U.S. tariffs. “The threat is real,” she said, reflecting the deep concerns many Ontarians share about the economic fallout from Trump’s policies. Meanwhile, Crombie focused on healthcare, promising to connect every Ontarian with a family doctor, while Schreiner emphasized affordability, housing, and farmland preservation.
Ontario’s economic powerhouse
With a population of around 16 million, Ontario is Canada’s most populous province and a key economic engine, contributing 38% to the national GDP. Its industries, particularly in manufacturing and automotive production, make it highly vulnerable to global trade disruptions, including the tariffs Trump has threatened. Ford’s victory provides him with a robust platform to push back against these external economic pressures.
Looking ahead
As Ford prepares for his third term in office, the political landscape in Ontario remains charged with uncertainty. The province's economy, particularly its manufacturing sector, could face significant challenges if Trump follows through with his tariff proposals. Ford’s commitment to stand up for Ontario’s interests, however, offers a sense of resolve in the face of adversity. It remains to be seen whether his government’s proactive approach to the tariff issue will result in meaningful action from Washington or lead to further tensions between Canada and the US
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