Saudi role in strategic conflict resolution

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As reported by Arab News, "US President Donald Trump will see his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Saudi Arabia for their first meeting since taking office in January." This was preceded by an almost 90-minute phone conversation between Trump and Putin. It may be noted here that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was the first foreign head of state that Trump called after taking office.

The role of MBS as a moderator in strategic conflict resolution has gradually put Saudi Arabia onto the center stage of global politics. Even President Putin acknowledged the Saudi role in 2023, as he thanked MBS for helping to organise the biggest prisoner swap between the US and Russia since the Cold War.

Earlier, King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud made a historic state visit to Russia in October 2017, marking the first-ever official trip by a Saudi monarch to Russia. The visit symbolised a significant thaw in the Saudi-Russian relations, which had been strained for decades due to Cold War rivalries, differences over Syria, and competition in global energy markets.

The visit highlighted a pragmatic shift in Saudi foreign policy under King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who sought to balance relations with major world powers - the US, China and Russia - amid the perceived US retreat under Trump. The visit underscored Saudi Arabia's move towards a multipolar foreign policy, reducing dependence on the US while engaging rivals like Russia and China.

The Biden administration's criticism of Saudi Arabia over human rights and oil policies did not help much and pushed Riyadh closer to Moscow and Beijing, echoing the strategic diversification initiated during King Salman's 2017 outreach.

MBS has facilitated cooperation between Russia and the US during the 2020 oil price crisis triggered by Covid-19. Saudi Arabia and Russia negotiated production cuts, with Trump engaging directly to stabilise global markets. This economic interdependence created a platform for the US-Russia dialogue.

MBS cultivated close ties with Trump through high-profile arms deals and strategic partnerships. This rapport allowed him to suggest diplomatic overtures to Putin, leveraging Trump's preference for personal diplomacy. Saudi Arabia's neutral stance in the US-Russia tensions enabled MBS to act as a discreet mediator.

Saudi investments in American and Russian markets also provided leverage. MBS could incentivise cooperation by aligning economic deals with diplomatic goals, such as energy market stability or arms sales.

There is also a humanitarian angle to the Saudi role in strategic conflict resolution, especially of the casualties of the war in Ukraine and the massive displacement of women and children from the country. This war has led to almost half a million soldiers killed so far. Over 6.5 million Ukrainians have fled the country, with the majority to Europe. Millions suffer from trauma, destroyed infrastructure and economic collapse.

Trump's announcement of KSA to be a venue of his meeting with Putin has drawn a mixed response from the EU and Western allies. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas has clearly stated that the backdoor deal will be a 'dirty deal', while Lithuanian Defense Minister has threatened that in case Europe and Ukraine were kept out of this deal, then Europe will consider developing its own economic, diplomatic and military alliance.

As reported by Reuters, the EU representatives were instigated by Trump's Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth who told NATO military allies that Ukraine's hoped-for return to its 2014 borders is an "unrealistic objective", and that the US does not believe that Kyiv's NATO membership is a "realistic outcome" of a negotiated end to Russia's three-year war on Ukraine.

Saudi Arabia's balancing act reflects its ambition to wield influence as a neutral mediator while safeguarding its economic and strategic interests. With such polarised stands and policy challenges, the role being played by MBS has become a significant step in international diplomacy and strategic conflict resolution. The world cannot afford wars and conflict to satisfy egos of neocons and old-fashioned European guardians of the so-called democratic world.