Taliban's shadow diplomacy

Since reclaiming power in August 2021, the Taliban have begun a nuanced diplomatic journey, engaging with neighbouring powers such as China, Russia and Iran. Despite international isolation over human rights and terrorism concerns, the Taliban have leveraged Afghanistan's strategic position and resources to further relationships centred on economic collaboration, border security and counterterrorism efforts. However, the sustainability of these alliances remains uncertain, given the Taliban's governance challenges and unpredictable policies.

The term 'shadow diplomacy' aptly captures the Taliban's approach - operating outside traditional norms, avoiding formal recognition, and relying on backchannel negotiations. Unlike internationally accepted governments, the Taliban engage in transactional diplomacy where geopolitical interests override legitimacy concerns. The Taliban established diplomatic relations with China, Russia and Iran because these countries do not share Western diplomatic protocols, enabling them to operate without formal international recognition.

The Taliban have made mineral resources worth over $1 trillion in Afghanistan the core aspect of their diplomatic efforts. They formed a business alliance with Russian, Iranian and Pakistani corporations to develop their mining sector and infrastructure, and generate power in 2023. China stands out as a leading party interested in extracting resources. But it demonstrates caution because the volatile situation creates risks for its financial commitments.

The FMs from China, Russia, Pakistan and Iran gathered in September 2024 to discuss regional security matters after requesting specific evidence from the Taliban about their actions against terrorist groups including ISKP and ETIM, along with the establishment of an inclusive government. The meaningful cooperation for countering terrorism remains hindered by the internal disputes combined with strict ideological positions held by the group.

Moreover, the Taliban's continued violations of human rights - including curbs related to women - have slowed down international recognition efforts. Additionally, security incidents involving foreign nationals have raised concerns. While the Taliban seek foreign investments, their ability to provide a stable environment remains doubtful.

Russia has expanded its intelligence and security cooperation with the Taliban, aiming to counter ISKP's expansion into Central Asia. However, Moscow's broader geopolitical ambitions and its rivalry with the West may complicate its long-term approach to Afghanistan.

The Taliban maintain a strategic diplomatic stance by pursuing Chinese economic support while seeking Russian security cooperation and preserving Iranian relations because of historical and ideological links. These nations grant their assistance to the Taliban but without any guarantee of complete backing. The Taliban face an insecure position because each nation approaches Afghanistan only in its own interest.

The Chinese government wants stability and economic benefit from the Taliban while they watch the Taliban struggle to maintain consistency. Russia evaluates Afghanistan as a counterterrorism threat and as part of its confrontation with Western powers yet it remains unclear if it will sustain its strategic backing. The security partnership exists between Iran and Afghanistan while trade relations maintain due to their different religious beliefs.

The Taliban's shadow diplomacy is an attempt to sustain their rule despite global rejection. By avoiding Western diplomatic norms and focusing on transactional relations with regional powers, they have created an alternative strategy to gain economic and security guarantees.

But the question remains: Can the Taliban carry these fragile partnerships? Or will internal and external pressures clear up their diplomatic progress? Afghanistan faces a crucial decision point because its leaders must lead regional diplomacy efforts while solving fundamental governance and security issues to determine its future direction. Failure of the Taliban to deliver on their commitments would lead Afghanistan to another period of diplomatic isolation and uncertainty regarding its future direction.