A handgun of one's own

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The ongoing war in Ukraine has reinforced a stark reality in international relations: when it comes to national security, self-reliance is paramount. While alliances and diplomatic support are crucial, the ability to defend one's own territory without overdependence on external powers has become a defining feature of modern statecraft. Ukraine's experience since the Russian invasion in 2022 serves as a critical case study, influencing defence policies worldwide and pushing nations to rethink their military preparedness.

Many analysts predicted that Russia would capture Kyiv within days after its full-scale invasion began in February 2022. The Ukrainian military delivered an unexpected strong defence against Russian invasion. The initial survival of Ukraine during the Russian invasion was made possible by its extensive preparation efforts which received vital support from Western military assistance. Ukraine implemented systematic military growth since Russia seized Crimea in 2014 by developing domestic defence capabilities and training non-military forces to use guerrilla warfare methods.

One of the key lessons from Ukraine's defence strategy is the necessity of indigenous military capability. The country revived its domestic arms industry, producing advanced drones, anti-tank weapons and mobile air defence systems.

Ukraine's resilience has triggered a domino effect globally, with countries now prioritising self-reliance in defence. The Polish military has launched an extensive European-wide expansion to develop the biggest land forces across the continent. Warsaw has raised its defence budget to exceed 4% of GDP through the acquisition of tanks, fighter jets and missile defence systems from both the US and South Korea.

The German 'Zeitenwende' policy introduced a new militaristic direction for the country by dedicating €100 billion to upgrade its military capabilities. The European nations recognise through this shift that NATO and US support cannot be taken for granted in future security situations.

While Ukraine has received substantial military aid from Western allies, the slow and often hesitant nature of this assistance underscores the limitations of external support. Delays in sending advanced weaponry such as F-16 fighter jets and long-range missiles have hampered Ukraine's counteroffensive efforts. Moreover, Western fatigue and political divisions - such as the recent US congressional deadlock over aid to Ukraine - highlight the risk of overreliance on foreign backers.

This has prompted smaller nations to reconsider their defence dependencies. The historically neutral countries Finland and Sweden entered NATO to receive collective security protection while developing their domestic defense manufacturing capabilities. Japan, facing growing threats from China and North Korea, has increased its defence budget to record levels, aiming to become a military power in its own right.

Ukraine's war has set a precedent where nations no longer see alliances as a substitute for self-sufficiency. This shift could lead to a global military buildup, where countries prioritise arms production, increase defence spending and reduce dependency on foreign suppliers. The growing need for domestic weapon production among India, South Korea and Saudi Arabia signals an emerging period during which national security becomes more important than traditional diplomatic partnerships.

This developing pattern generates multiple uncertainties. The heavy weaponisation of every country worldwide creates elevated dangers of both regional warfare and escalating arms competition. The challenge for policymakers will be to balance self-reliance with diplomatic engagement to prevent escalations.

The war in Ukraine has proven that national security cannot be outsourced. Today nations require an independent defence capability beyond alliances. As more nations take steps to acquire their own "handgun" — whether through military buildup, domestic arms production or new strategic doctrines — the global order is shifting toward a future where self-reliance is not just an advantage but a necessity.