Japan megaquake' probability up to 82%

Japan's government panel raises the probability of a "megaquake" to 75-82% in the next 30 years.

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TOKYO:

The probability of a "megaquake" in Japan in the next 30 years has marginally increased, a government panel said Thursday, with a 75-82 percent chance of it happening.

Such a jolt could potentially have a devastating 8-9 magnitude, trigger colossal tsunamis, kill several hundred thousand people, and cause billions of dollars in damage, experts say.

The Earthquake Research Committee said it has increased its estimate of the probability to between 75 and 82 percent from between 74 and 81 percent previously.

It concerns what is known as a subduction megathrust quake along the Nankai Trough, an 800-kilometre (500-mile) undersea gully running parallel to Japan's Pacific coast.

The trench is where the Philippine Sea oceanic tectonic plate is "subducting" -- or slowly slipping -- underneath the continental plate that Japan sits atop.