Sham slogans versus imperative development

Budgetary allocation for education has gradually eroded more than 30% over past six years

Listen to article

ISLAMABAD:

The exposure to a penalty of $18 billion against the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline is almost knocking on our doors now. However, totally oblivious to the developing challenge, frivolities rule supreme all around us; for example, a provincial government keeps on laying sieges to Islamabad.

The province went through 236 terrorist attacks in the current year, but the swag in the conduct and behaviour of those leading the sieges does not reflect this reality.

What else can we expect in a country where we have observed a gradual erosion of more than 30%, ie from 2.3% to 1.5% of GDP, in budgetary allocations for education over the past five to six years?

Hopelessness of the youth and associated angst in combination with this deprivation from education makes them easy fodder for one exploiter or the other. Events of 9th May, 23rd to 26th November, 2024 are living examples of the same.

They represent a pattern. The elite generally relish creating bogus alibis to dupe public and secure their support. The public, being naive and uneducated, loves to hang on to sentimental ego boosters and placebos thrown towards them.

It may help to explain this phenomenon with the example of Cuban leadership, which popularly carries an anti-imperialist identity since 1959.

What makes Cuba particularly close to my heart is the role it played in helping victims of the earthquake of October 2005 in Pakistan. Their team comprising over 2,400 medical staff operated 32 field hospitals and two relief camps for more than six months and also supplied tons of medical supplies and equipment.

Located only 90 km away from the US; Cuba has operated under a regime of severe US sanctions for the past more than six decades. Before 1959, US businesses controlled Cuba's oil refineries. On January 1, 1959, the revolutionary forces led by Castro ousted the Cuban tyrant named Batista.

The new Cuban government soon after announced sweeping land reforms and around 200,000 peasants received land titles. This included expropriation of 40% of arable land from foreign owners and corporations and its distribution among the landless.

Soviet oil started arriving in April 1960 against sugar supplies. The US-controlled refineries refused to process that oil, which compelled the Cuban government to nationalise them. The second phase of land reforms expropriating all private holdings larger than 167 acres was introduced in 1963.

Energy security and Cuba

Cuba was able to ramp up its oil production to 20,000 barrels per day (bpd) by 1990 from 1,000 bpd in 1959 and further to 58,000 bpd over the subsequent 14 years. This was not a minor feat, when the recovery factor is generally 5-7% due to high viscosity.

The achievement of production level of 130 mmscfd of natural gas by 2004 was additional. Also, in mid-90s, they adopted horisontal drilling, which reduced costs and increased production.

Cuba's special development zone in the Gulf of Mexico has geological features identical to the oil fields of USA and Mexico in the Gulf, which produce around 3.6 million bpd of oil. Therefore, four exploratory wells were drilled since 2004 till 2012 by Cuba in the Gulf. Though they are yet to make a discovery there, it seems to be only a matter of time.

Also, we all know that offshore exploration and development necessitates substantially larger funds vis-a-vis those for onshore operations.

The extraordinary hard work and engagement skills of the Cuban leadership, in spite of the US sanctions, continue to attract investors in the E&P sector. The list includes Alturas, British Borneo, Geopetrol, Petronas, Repsol, PDVSA, Petrochina, Sonangol, Premier, Sherritt, etc.

Australian group Petro Australis is the operator of three onshore blocks in Cuba including the Pina fields discovered in 1990. It is planned to ramp up their production to 30,000 bpd.

Another Australian company Melbana Energy made a sizeable discovery at Alameda-1 in 2021 in the highly prospective block 9; where Alameda is just one lead out of 19. Production is planned to commence in early 2025.

Reserves recovery at Boca de Jaruco was increased in 2024 by drilling horizontal wells with the cooperation of a Russian company. The field was discovered in 1968 with huge reserves. Production is now planned to be gradually ramped up to 100,000 bpd.

Similarly, CUPET – the national oil company of Cuba – and Chinese company Great Wall completed the longest horizontal oil well of Cuba, measuring 8,047 metres, a few months ago in a field discovered in 1971 with a reserves potential of more than 1 billion barrels. It is currently producing 5,300 bpd with a potential to increase to 7,100 bpd.

I wonder at the progress Cuba could have achieved if they were allowed to develop as a normal country, ie, without sanctions. In my view, their oil production alone would have been equal to that of Norway at least with far-reaching politico-economic implications for the entire South America.

What is to be done

Many of us may disagree with the approach of the Cuban leadership. However, their example makes it evident that the political identity of anti-imperialism is generally associated with a commitment to a particular set of economic reforms with the fundamental being the eradication of feudalism, establishment of a welfare state and energy security.

Considering feudalism, it continues to exist in Pakistan in its most exploitative form, with 60% of the rural households completely landless. No mainstream politician even talks about it.

As to our credentials about being a welfare state, during the last more than 40 years, the average annual allocation in Cuba for health and education each remained around 12% of GDP, while in Pakistan the allocation for health is merely 1% and for education, as mentioned above, only 1.5%.

Cuba's efforts for energy security, already described above, amply reflect that they are geared towards the optimal realisation of the indigenous potential; whereas, in our case the ever-increasing energy import bill has assumed the proportion of a real threat for the nation.

Thus, the public, before investing their sentiment in future, may learn to evaluate any claims of people-friendly politics by our political outfits on the above yardstick.

The writer is a petroleum engineer and an oil and gas management professional